What will Molina Healthcare's total membership be at the end of Q2 2026?
Current Estimate
Why This Question Matters
Membership is the volume component of the CONDITIONAL vs FRAGILE debate. The Gravy Gauge classified revenue as CONDITIONAL (margin risk, not elimination risk), while Regulatory Reader classified it as FRAGILE. If membership declines >1.5% per quarter — beyond the ~1% redetermination baseline — it supports the FRAGILE interpretation that eligibility policy changes erode the revenue base itself, not just margins. Stable membership supports CONDITIONAL.
Estimate Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Starting from ~5.3M in Q3 2025, three quarters of decline through Q2 2026. Medicaid redeterminations at ~1% quarterly, ACA subsidy expiration shrinks Marketplace, intentional 20% footprint reduction adds downward pressure. 21-state diversification and Medicare duals growth provide partial offsets. Central estimate ~5.0M reflects cumulative 5-6% decline.
Starting from Q3 2025 baseline of ~5.3M, three quarters of decline. Medicaid redeterminations continue at ~1% per quarter, Virginia loss already reflected, Marketplace intentionally shrinking compounded by ACA subsidy expiration, 6-month OBBBA redetermination cycle adds pressure. Medicare duals expansion and new wins partially offset. Net ~5-6% decline centering around 5.0M.
From ~5.3M Q3 2025 baseline, ~1% quarterly baseline decline would yield ~5.14M, but multiple compounding headwinds push lower: ACA subsidy expiration reducing Marketplace, 6-month OBBBA redetermination cycle, potential pre-effects of work requirements. 21-state diversification and 90% re-procurement win rate provide ballast. Median at 5.0M reflecting ~1-1.2% quarterly decline plus Marketplace contraction.
Base ~1% quarterly Medicaid decline plus Marketplace contraction and ACA subsidy expiration pressure yields ~5.0M central estimate. OBBBA work requirements and re-procurement risks create modest downside, but 21-state diversification and strong win rate provide ballast.
Starting from 5.3M in Q3 2025, baseline 1% quarterly decline suggests ~5.25M by Q2 2026 (3 quarters). Virginia contract loss already reflected in Q3 baseline. Marketplace intentional reduction and Medicaid redeterminations continue as steady headwinds, but 90% re-procurement win rate and 21-state diversification provide stability against catastrophic drops.
From Q3 2025's 5.3M baseline, three quarters of continued ~1% decline from redeterminations yields ~5.22M by Q2 2026. Virginia's 120K loss already reflected. Marketplace intentional shrinkage and post-subsidy expiry headwinds partially offset by geographic diversification and 90% re-procurement win rate.
Starting from Q3 2025 baseline of ~5.3M, compound three quarters of ~1% quarterly decline from Medicaid redeterminations. Upside assumes re-procurement wins stabilize Medicaid; downside reflects work requirements pre-enrollment effects and accelerated Marketplace contraction beyond planned 20% reduction.
Starting from Q3 2025's 5.3M, ~1% quarterly baseline decline through Q2 2026 (~3 quarters) points to ~5.1M base case. Virginia's 120K loss largely realized. Marketplace intentional shrinkage partially countered by Medicare expansion. Key uncertainty: whether redetermination pace accelerates beyond 1% quarterly baseline.
Q3 2025 baseline of 5.3M faces ~1% quarterly decline headwind from Medicaid redeterminations through Q2 2026 (~3 quarters, cumulative ~3% decline) partially offset by Medicare growth. Virginia loss and intentional Marketplace reduction provide downside, while 90% re-procurement win rate and geographic diversification provide modest support. Work requirements effective December 2026 likely defer material impact past Q2.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to total membership across all segments (Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace) reported by Molina Healthcare in the Q2 2026 10-Q filing or earnings release, expressed in millions to one decimal place. Membership defined as total eligible members as of June 30, 2026, per the company's standard membership disclosure table.
Resolution Source
Molina Healthcare Q2 2026 10-Q filing, membership disclosure table in MD&A or financial statement notes
Source Trigger
Membership trajectory — ~1% quarterly decline from redeterminations; trigger at >1.5%/quarter or >10% annual churn from work requirements
Full multi-lens equity analysis