Will Congress extend ACA enhanced premium subsidies before Q4 2026?

OBBBA-passing majority signals strong opposition to ACA expansion. 8-month timeline insufficient for major policy reversal given current political composition.

While current majority opposed subsidies, economic pressure from 30% rate hikes could force bipartisan compromise. Historical precedent shows Congress often extends expiring healthcare provisions under constituent pressure.

Marketplace represents only 6.5% of Molina revenue but affects millions nationally. Crisis dynamics from rate hikes may create narrow window for limited extension, though full restoration unlikely.

OBBBA passage demonstrates ideological commitment against ACA provisions. Marketplace MCR of 95.6% shows structural issues subsidies don't solve, weakening case for extension.

8 months allows for one major legislative push. If marketplace disruption accelerates in Q2/Q3, emergency extension possible as face-saving measure despite opposition.

Primary de-escalation catalyst per analysis, but requires Congressional action against recent voting pattern. 20% footprint reduction by insurers creates urgency, but likely insufficient to overcome partisan divide.

OBBBA passage is direct evidence of majority's policy direction. Marketplace classified as 'non-core and expendable' — Congress likely shares this view.

RAPID timeline (1-2 quarters) means immediate visible harm to constituents. Historical pattern shows Congress extends healthcare subsidies under pressure, even when ideologically opposed.

While $2.5B revenue signals national scale, current political composition and OBBBA passage suggest extension would require major crisis unlikely by Q4 2026.