Will aggregate Big 4 hyperscaler CapEx growth decelerate below 15% YoY by Q2 CY2026?

The committee identifies hyperscaler CapEx as the master variable (4/4 lenses, E2). The critical quantitative anchor: Big 4 aggregate CapEx grew from ~$256B in CY2024 to ~$443B in CY2025 (+73% YoY), and all four have explicitly guided to $635-665B aggregate in CY2026 (+66-74% YoY). For any quarter in H1 2026 to show sub-15% YoY growth, quarterly spending would need to barely exceed the same quarter in CY2025 — a level that contradicts all four companies' explicit capital allocation commitments made as recently as January-February 2026 earnings calls. The committee notes historical precedent from 2022-2023, but that CapEx pause occurred amid generalized macro tightening without explicit forward guidance of this magnitude. The resolution window (through Q2 CY2026) is only ~4 months from today, offering insufficient time for a coordinated macro shock to reverse explicit commitments across four independent companies.

The committee's prediction context notes CapEx was growing 'well above 15% YoY through CY2025.' Fresh data confirms this with ~73% aggregate growth. The 2026 guidance from all four hyperscalers — Amazon ($200B), Alphabet ($175-185B), Meta ($115-135B), Microsoft (~$145B) — collectively implies $635-665B, representing 66-74% growth over CY2025's ~$383B. For the question to resolve YES, aggregate Q1 or Q2 CY2026 CapEx would need to fall below ~115% of the corresponding CY2025 quarter. Given that Amazon alone guided $200B (vs $131.8B in CY2025), and Meta and Google roughly doubled their guidance, this would require multiple companies to simultaneously and drastically abandon publicly stated plans within weeks of announcing them. I weight the tail scenario — a sudden AI monetization panic or severe financial crisis — at ~8%. The Gravy Gauge's E0-E1 evidence quality for mitigation is less relevant here because the question is about external hyperscaler behavior, not Marvell's response.

I focus on the mathematical constraint. CY2025 aggregate Big 4 CapEx was approximately $383B, or ~$96B per quarter on average (with Q4 likely higher due to seasonal patterns). For Q1 CY2026 to show sub-15% YoY growth, Q1 CY2026 CapEx would need to be below ~$110B. But the 2026 full-year guidance of $635-665B implies ~$159-166B per quarter. Even if Q1 is seasonally lighter (say 22% of annual), that's ~$140B — still roughly 50% above the comparable CY2025 quarter. The committee correctly notes the 2022-2023 precedent, but that downturn took 3-4 quarters to manifest after initial signals and occurred from a much lower absolute spending level without explicit forward guidance. The Q1 and Q2 CY2026 earnings reports that would resolve this market will reflect spending decisions already being executed. Data center construction, GPU orders, and facility leases are committed months in advance — spending cannot be cut in a quarter.

This is about as close to a definitive NO as prediction markets get. All four hyperscalers guided massive CY2026 CapEx increases within the last 8 weeks — Amazon +52%, Google +91-102%, Meta +60-88%, Microsoft ramping well above prior year. The aggregate implied growth rate is 66-74% YoY. The question asks whether this drops below 15% in Q1 or Q2 2026. These quarters are imminent — Q1 ends in 8 weeks, Q2 in 20 weeks. CapEx at this scale involves commitments to semiconductor vendors, construction contractors, and real estate that cannot be unwound in weeks. The committee's analysis correctly identifies hyperscaler CapEx as the master variable for Marvell, but the committee's data vintage (Nov 2025) did not yet incorporate the Q4 CY2025 earnings guidance which dramatically raised 2026 spending commitments.

The committee's prediction context correctly identifies the key question but was assembled before Q4 CY2025 earnings revealed the magnitude of 2026 CapEx commitments. The context states CapEx was 'well above 15%' — the reality is it was 73% aggregate in CY2025 and is guided to 66-74% for CY2026. For sub-15% growth, we'd need to see aggregate quarterly CapEx of roughly the same level as CY2025 quarters. But Amazon alone guided $200B for CY2026 (vs $131.8B in CY2025), which means Amazon's 2026 CapEx would need to collapse by ~$65B mid-year — an impossibility given signed contracts and facility construction. The only scenario I can construct: a major financial crisis or government intervention that freezes capital markets. I assign ~7% to tail scenarios including severe recession, geopolitical shock, or AI regulatory ban.

The resolution criteria require aggregate Big 4 CapEx growth below 15% YoY for any calendar quarter through Q2 CY2026. Current trajectory: CY2025 full-year was ~$383B across the Big 4, and CY2026 is guided to $635-665B. Even accounting for quarterly lumpiness, the math makes sub-15% growth essentially impossible absent a black swan. The Moat Mapper assigns 'Medium likelihood' to cloud CapEx deceleration, but that assessment covers a multi-year horizon, not the next 4 months. The Myth Meter's observation that the stock has already declined 35% reflects repricing of the CapEx deceleration risk at a longer time horizon (FY2028+), not an imminent H1 2026 event. The committee's concerns are valid for 2027-2028 but nearly irrelevant for Q1-Q2 CY2026.

Big 4 guided $635-665B for CY2026 vs ~$383B in CY2025. That is 66-74% growth. The 15% threshold is not remotely at risk within Q1-Q2 CY2026. CapEx commitments are already in motion. Only a catastrophic macro event could alter this, and even then, the spending is largely pre-committed through construction and procurement contracts.

Every hyperscaler has independently guided to massive CapEx increases for CY2026 as recently as January-February 2026 earnings. Amazon: $200B. Google: $175-185B. Meta: $115-135B. Microsoft: ~$145B. These are explicit public commitments. The aggregate YoY growth rate would need to collapse from 66-74% to below 15% within one or two quarters. Mechanically impossible given infrastructure lead times.

The committee's analysis is most relevant to longer-term CapEx risk (FY2027-2028), not the imminent Q1-Q2 CY2026 window. Fresh data shows CY2025 aggregate growth of 73% and CY2026 guided growth of 66-74%. The math does not support sub-15% in any near-term quarter. Assigning minimal tail risk probability for an unforeseen catastrophic event.