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MRVL Forecast Markets

Marvell Technology

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
35%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Feb 22, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will aggregate Big 4 hyperscaler CapEx growth decelerate below 15% YoY by Q2 CY2026?

Active
4%
Likely No
6%4%after Q4 FY2026 earnings confirmation
99% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Marvell report any revenue contribution from Celestial AI products by Q4 FY2027?

Active
32%
Likely No
47%32%after Q4 FY2026 earnings call — CEO explicitly stated acquisitions not expected to contribute meaningfully until FY2028
87% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Broadcom publicly disclose custom AI silicon wins at a hyperscaler currently using Marvell by December 31, 2026?

Active
28%
Likely No
38%28%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
89% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Marvell's quarterly Data Center revenue exceed $2B by Q2 FY2027?

Active
20%
Likely No
28%20%after Q4 FY2026 earnings
85% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Marvell's non-GAAP gross margin fall below 59% in any quarter through Q2 FY2027?

Active
87%
Likely Yes
63%87%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: non-GAAP GM at exactly 59.0% (at threshold, not below); Q1 FY2027 guidance midpoint 58.75% (below 59%); five-quarter compression trend confirmed
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Marvell have at least 3 custom XPU programs in volume production by Q2 FY2027?

Active
66%
Likely Yes
58%66%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: custom revenue $1.5B (doubled), 20+ sockets, several XPU attach programs ramping FY2027
88% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Marvell's non-data-center revenue exceed $600M in any quarter through Q2 FY2027?

Active
30%
Likely No
33%30%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: non-DC revenue $567M (below $600M threshold). Q1 FY2027 guided ~$575-580M (also below). Only Q2 FY2027 remains — narrowing from 3 chances to 1.
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.36

Will Marvell's Q4 FY2026 revenue fall below $2.09B?

Resolved
9%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.008
Mar 5, 2026
IG: 0.60

Resolution Timeline

Apr 1, 2026RESOLVED
Will Marvell's Q4 FY2026 revenue fall below $2.09B?
NOBrier: 0.01
Aug 15, 2026
Will aggregate Big 4 hyperscaler CapEx growth decelerate below 15% YoY by Q2 CY2026?
Prediction: 4%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Marvell's quarterly Data Center revenue exceed $2B by Q2 FY2027?
Prediction: 20%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Marvell's non-GAAP gross margin fall below 59% in any quarter through Q2 FY2027?
Prediction: 87%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Marvell have at least 3 custom XPU programs in volume production by Q2 FY2027?
Prediction: 66%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Marvell's non-data-center revenue exceed $600M in any quarter through Q2 FY2027?
Prediction: 30%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Broadcom publicly disclose custom AI silicon wins at a hyperscaler currently using Marvell by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 28%
Mar 15, 2027
Will Marvell report any revenue contribution from Celestial AI products by Q4 FY2027?
Prediction: 32%