Will Marvell's Q4 FY2026 revenue fall below $2.09B?

Marvell has beaten guidance every single quarter during the AI ramp — Q4 FY25 through Q3 FY26 is at least four consecutive beats. The $2.09B threshold represents the absolute floor of the +/-5% guidance range, meaning revenue would need to miss the midpoint by more than 5%. In semiconductor companies with active beat streaks, missing below the low end of guidance is extremely rare absent a sudden demand shock. The CFO's voluntary open-market purchase of 3,400 shares at $78.03 roughly two months before guidance was set is a meaningful positive signal — informed insiders do not buy when they see a material miss forming. The guided sequential increase of +$125M is large, but CRPO and data center backlog visibility in custom silicon provides reasonable forward coverage. The quarter has already ended, and if there were a catastrophic miss, we might expect some pre-announcement or unusual insider activity, neither of which is indicated.

While the beat streak is compelling, I weight the lumpiness risk more heavily than Run 1. Custom silicon programs are coordinated with hyperscaler deployment schedules, and quarter-to-quarter variability is explicitly flagged in the analysis. The guided sequential growth of +$125M would be the largest absolute quarterly increase since Q4 FY25, when the AI ramp was in its most explosive phase. Data center YoY growth decelerated sharply from +69% to +38% in one quarter — this is not a smooth trajectory but a step function that could step down further. The Myth Meter's DIVERGING assessment (management tone escalating while growth decelerates) adds incremental concern. However, even with these risk factors, a miss below the guidance floor remains a tail event. The $2.09B threshold provides an $111M cushion below the midpoint. Management teams that consistently beat do not suddenly miss by >5%.

The math makes this question fairly clear. For revenue to fall below $2.09B, Marvell would need to report at most $2.089B — that is $111M below the $2.2B guidance midpoint, or a -5.05% miss. The prior quarter reported $2.075B, so a miss below $2.09B would mean essentially flat or declining sequential revenue. This would require data center revenue to actually decline, which contradicts every trend in the analysis: DC revenue has grown sequentially every quarter ($1.37B -> $1.44B -> $1.49B -> $1.52B). Even if DC growth stalled completely (flat at $1.52B), total revenue from other segments would need to collapse by ~$55M for total revenue to miss $2.09B. The non-DC segments have been stable/declining modestly. A floor miss requires multiple simultaneous failures across segments, which is inconsistent with the company's positioning and the insider buying pattern.

This is asking about a worst-case scenario that has no precedent in Marvell's recent history. Every quarter during the AI ramp, they have beaten guidance. Missing below the LOW END of guidance would be a 2+ sigma event. The deceleration narrative is real but it is about the RATE of growth slowing, not about absolute revenue declining. Even the Myth Meter's DIVERGING assessment is about timing and magnitude of the gap, not about fabrication — the analysis explicitly states 'the company is not a myth.' The CFO bought stock with his own money. The quarter is over and there has been no pre-announcement. This is a sub-10% probability event.

I'll steelman the bear case. The guided sequential growth of +$125M is a significant acceleration from the +$69M achieved in Q3. If you look at the trend (+$78M, +$111M, +$69M), Q3's +$69M was already a deceleration. Management is guiding to nearly double that. The custom silicon lumpiness risk is not trivial — a single hyperscaler deployment delay could shift $100M+ between quarters. The Myth Meter found management tone inversely correlated with growth rate, suggesting possible overconfidence. However, even with all this, the question is not whether they miss midpoint (which is possible at maybe 20-25%) but whether they miss the FLOOR by more than 5%. That requires stacking multiple adverse outcomes. I put this at ~12% — above the 5-8% that a pure base-rate approach would suggest, but well below a coin flip.

The Consolidation Calibrator's finding that organic growth at +37% confirms M&A is not masking decline is relevant here — the underlying business is genuinely growing. The FY2027 $10B target requires Q4 to come in around $2.2B to maintain the run rate trajectory. Management set guidance knowing this milestone matters enormously to investors, which increases the incentive to set achievable targets. Companies don't guide to a range where the floor would represent their first-ever miss during a critical growth narrative unless they have high visibility. Data center backlog from custom programs provides forward revenue visibility that makes surprise shortfalls less likely. I assign roughly 10% probability, accounting for tail risks like hyperscaler capex pullbacks or supply chain disruptions that could materialize despite management visibility.

Perfect beat streak + CFO insider buy + quarter already ended with no pre-announcement = very low probability of floor miss. The $2.09B threshold is the absolute bottom of guidance range. Base rate for companies with 4+ consecutive beats missing below guidance floor is well under 10%.

Custom silicon lumpiness is the key risk. Guided sequential growth of +$125M is the largest in four quarters and requires acceleration from a decelerating trend. Data center growth dropped from +69% to +38% YoY in one quarter — step-function risks exist. However, missing the floor (not just midpoint) is an extreme outcome. Adjusting upward from base rate for lumpiness risk but still well below 15%.

The question is whether revenue falls below $2.09B, not whether they beat. Prior quarter was $2.075B — missing $2.09B means basically no sequential growth. DC revenue has grown sequentially every quarter. Even flat DC plus stable other segments gets above $2.09B. Requires active revenue decline across multiple segments. Very unlikely.