Will Marvell's non-data-center revenue exceed $600M in any quarter through Q2 FY2027?

Ex-auto, the three remaining non-DC segments total ~$522M. Auto will likely decline from $35M toward $15-20M over the next 2-3 quarters. Enterprise + carrier + consumer need to reach ~$580-585M to hit $600M total, requiring ~11.5% growth from the $522M base across 3 quarters. Enterprise at +57% YoY and carrier at +98% YoY suggest strong cyclical recovery momentum, but these are from deep troughs and growth rates will decelerate as the base normalizes. Management's strategic focus is entirely on DC -- non-DC segments may not receive investment priority. The 3-quarter window helps, but the auto wind-down headwind is substantial and carrier at $168M is well below the $250M monitoring trigger threshold.

Modeling the quarterly trajectory with moderate sequential growth assumptions -- enterprise +5% sequential, carrier +7% sequential, consumer +4% sequential -- produces estimates of Q4 ~$571M, Q1 ~$591M, Q2 ~$617M as auto declines. Even with conservative growth rates, Q2 FY27 could approach or exceed $600M. The 3-quarter window is powerful: even if Q4 and Q1 fall short, the cumulative trajectory favors reaching the threshold by Q2. CRPO-equivalent forward revenue indicators in enterprise and carrier (5G DPU refresh, 5G carrier buildout) provide cyclical tailwinds. However, CONTESTED competitive position in communications (Moat Mapper) limits the ceiling on recovery.

The committee explicitly notes management deliberately increased DC concentration by divesting Auto Ethernet -- 'non-DC recovery is not a strategic priority.' Companies that de-prioritize segments don't typically see them outperform. The carrier recovery at +98% YoY sounds impressive but is from an extremely low base; carrier CapEx cycles are notoriously lumpy. Enterprise faces CONTESTED competitive dynamics per the Moat Mapper. The auto wind-down creates a mathematical headwind of $25-35M that must be overcome. Consumer at only +21% YoY is unlikely to accelerate. Strategic neglect combined with auto headwinds makes the $600M threshold challenging even with 3 chances.

Simple math: $557M base, need $600M, 3 quarters. Auto declining ~$10-15M/quarter means remaining segments need to add ~$55-80M total. Enterprise and carrier are in strong cyclical recoveries (+57% and +98% YoY). Even with decelerating growth rates, sequential growth of 5-8% in enterprise and carrier plus modest consumer growth should generate $20-30M of incremental quarterly revenue. The 3-quarter window is the biggest positive factor -- even if Q4 falls short, Q1 or Q2 may reach it. But the auto headwind eats into gains, and management attention is focused on DC. Slightly below coin-flip.

Ex-auto, non-DC is ~$522M and needs to reach $585-600M (12-15% growth) over 3 quarters. Enterprise and carrier are in CONTESTED markets where Marvell lacks the DOMINANT position it has in DC custom silicon. Growth requires winning competitive deals, not riding secular tailwinds. The +98% carrier and +57% enterprise YoY numbers are misleading -- recovering from abnormally depressed levels, and rate of recovery will naturally slow. Management's attention and R&D investment is directed at data center. The committee's Moat Mapper assessment of 'stable-to-declining' trend in communications further limits recovery potential.

The 3-quarter window matters mathematically. Even if probability of exceeding $600M in any single quarter is moderate, 3 independent chances compound. Estimating per-quarter probabilities: Q4 ~10% (auto still weighing, minimal sequential time), Q1 ~18% (2 quarters of growth trajectory), Q2 ~25% (fullest recovery with 3 quarters of compounding). Combined: 1 - (0.90 * 0.82 * 0.75) = ~45%. But these per-quarter estimates may be too generous given the auto headwind and CONTESTED competitive dynamics. Adjusting downward for structural headwinds yields approximately 0.35. The auto segment declining from $35M toward near-zero over this period is the critical drag.

Non-DC at $557M needs $600M across 3 quarters. Auto declining rapidly offsets enterprise (+57% YoY) and carrier (+98% YoY) cyclical recovery. Management focused on DC, not non-DC growth. Math is tight -- need ~8% growth while absorbing auto decline. Slightly below coin-flip with 3 chances.

Key headwinds: auto declining $25-35M over the window, management strategic neglect of non-DC, CONTESTED competitive positions. Key tailwinds: enterprise and carrier in strong cyclical recovery, 3-quarter window. The $43M gap plus auto erosion means enterprise + carrier + consumer need ~$70-80M of growth over 3 quarters. Enterprise 5G DPU refresh and carrier 5G buildout provide cyclical support but face competitive dynamics.

Three chances helps but auto declining from $35M toward near-$0 is major drag. Ex-auto base needs 12-15% growth in 3 quarters. Enterprise and carrier cyclical recovery provides tailwinds but from CONTESTED competitive position with stable-to-declining trend (Moat Mapper). Management focus on DC means non-DC segments unlikely to receive growth-driving investment.