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MSResolved

Will Morgan Stanley repurchase at least $2.0B of common stock in Q1 2026?

Resolves April 25, 2026

IG: 0.48

Resolved

Outcome: NO

Source: Morgan Stanley Q1 2026 8-K and earnings call transcript ("opportunistically bought back $1.75 billion of common stock").

Resolved: April 29, 2026

Q1 2026 buybacks were $1.75B — $250M short of the $2.0B threshold. Capital deployed to support client activity in markets franchise; CET1 holds 15.1%.

Prediction Score

Initial Prediction

0.160

Brier Score

Final Prediction

0.160

Brier Score

No updates (single prediction batch)

Final Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement85%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 13, 2026

Why This Question Matters

With 300bps excess CET1 capital, the pace of capital return is a confidence signal. Acceleration above $2B/quarter indicates management views the current valuation as attractive; deceleration signals caution or preservation of optionality.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

Actual: NO

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 42%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Q4 2025 $1.5B was already an acceleration. Going to $2B would be another meaningful step-up in one quarter. Management's explicit capital priorities put dividend and investment ahead of buyback, and Pick has framed buyback as 'opportunistic.' The 13% stock decline creates some opportunistic window but $2B is a high bar. Lean NO at 42%.

Q4 $1.5B recent accelerationDividend priority above buyback$2B high step-up

opusRun 2

38%

Historical MS quarterly buyback has ranged $0.5B-$1.5B with $2B being in the top quartile. The 'patient' capital deployment framing works against acceleration. RWA growth in Q4 absorbs capital into the business. Lean NO at 38%.

Top quartile thresholdPatient framing works againstRWA absorption

opusRun 3

42%

The stock decline does create opportunistic optics. Management has $9B+ of excess capital buffer. A step-up to $2B in Q1 is plausible if they view the current price as attractive. However, the explicit capital priorities framing and historical pattern argue for continued discipline rather than acceleration. Slight lean NO at 42%.

Stock decline optics$9B bufferDiscipline framing

sonnetRun 1

40%

Q4 step-up to $1.5B was already notable. Going to $2B requires another ~33% sequential increase which is a big jump for one quarter. Lean NO at 40%.

Q4 step-up already33% sequential jumpLean NO

sonnetRun 2

38%

Management framing prioritizes dividend and investment. Buyback acceleration usually happens with clear market signal. Not obvious yet.

Dividend priorityNo clear acceleration signal38%

sonnetRun 3

42%

The stock is attractive at $160-170 relative to perceived fair value so management may opportunistically step up. But $2B is specific and requires a decision to deploy more than in Q4. Close but lean NO at 42%.

Attractive stock levelSpecific thresholdLean NO

haikuRun 1

40%

Lean NO at 40%. $2B is aggressive vs the established $1.1-1.5B quarterly range.

Aggressive thresholdEstablished rangeLean NO

haikuRun 2

40%

Step-up possible but historical pattern favors NO at $2B threshold. 40%.

Historical patternStep-up possibleNO lean

haikuRun 3

38%

Disciplined framing and absence of a clear acceleration signal favor NO. 38%.

Disciplined framingNo acceleration signal38%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Morgan Stanley's Q1 2026 common stock repurchases, as disclosed in the Q1 2026 earnings release or 10-Q, are at least $2.0B. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

Morgan Stanley Q1 2026 earnings press release and 10-Q

Source Trigger

Buyback pace acceleration — does Q1 buyback exceed the $1.5B Q4 2025 run rate and signal confidence in valuation

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM

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