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MS Forecast Markets

Morgan Stanley

View Thesis View Full Analysis

8

Active Markets

4

Resolved

48%

Avg Probability

Price Above Value

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

5 markets analyzedConfidence: HIGH

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All Markets

12 markets

Will Morgan Stanley disclose private credit / direct lending or related warehouse credit losses exceeding $500M in any single quarter through Q4 2026?

Will Morgan Stanley's Q2 2026 reported EPS exceed consensus estimates by at least $0.05?

Will Morgan Stanley's Q2 2026 Investment Banking revenue grow at least 15% year over year?

Will the final Basel III Endgame rule (or successor capital framework) issued by US bank regulators in 2026 result in a Morgan Stanley CET1 capital impact estimate of less than 100 bps?

Will Morgan Stanley's named Section 16 officers conduct additional discretionary open-market sales exceeding $10M in aggregate during Q2 2026?

Will Morgan Stanley report a Q2 2026 Wealth Management pretax margin of at least 29% on a reported basis?

Will Morgan Stanley repurchase at least $7.5B of common stock cumulatively across Q1-Q3 2026?

Will Morgan Stanley disclose Net Interest Income from non-US banking subsidiaries (including Morgan Stanley Bank AG) of at least $750M for FY2026?

Will Morgan Stanley's Q1 2026 Investment Banking revenue grow at least 20% year over year?

Will Morgan Stanley report a Q1 2026 Wealth Management pretax margin of at least 29% on a reported basis?

Will Morgan Stanley's Q1 2026 reported EPS exceed consensus estimates by at least $0.05?

Will Morgan Stanley repurchase at least $2.0B of common stock in Q1 2026?

Resolution Timeline

Apr 25, 2026RESOLVED

Will Morgan Stanley's Q1 2026 Investment Banking revenue grow at least 20% year over year?

YESBrier: 0.18

Apr 25, 2026RESOLVED

Will Morgan Stanley report a Q1 2026 Wealth Management pretax margin of at least 29% on a reported basis?

YESBrier: 0.20

Apr 25, 2026RESOLVED

Will Morgan Stanley's Q1 2026 reported EPS exceed consensus estimates by at least $0.05?

YESBrier: 0.19

Apr 25, 2026RESOLVED

Will Morgan Stanley repurchase at least $2.0B of common stock in Q1 2026?

NOBrier: 0.16

Jul 15, 2026

Will Morgan Stanley's named Section 16 officers conduct additional discretionary open-market sales exceeding $10M in aggregate during Q2 2026?

Prediction: 62%

Jul 25, 2026

Will Morgan Stanley's Q2 2026 reported EPS exceed consensus estimates by at least $0.05?

Prediction: 54%

Jul 25, 2026

Will Morgan Stanley's Q2 2026 Investment Banking revenue grow at least 15% year over year?

Prediction: 56%

Jul 25, 2026

Will Morgan Stanley report a Q2 2026 Wealth Management pretax margin of at least 29% on a reported basis?

Prediction: 83%

Oct 25, 2026

Will Morgan Stanley repurchase at least $7.5B of common stock cumulatively across Q1-Q3 2026?

Prediction: 28%

Dec 31, 2026

Will the final Basel III Endgame rule (or successor capital framework) issued by US bank regulators in 2026 result in a Morgan Stanley CET1 capital impact estimate of less than 100 bps?

Prediction: 44%

Feb 15, 2027

Will Morgan Stanley disclose private credit / direct lending or related warehouse credit losses exceeding $500M in any single quarter through Q4 2026?

Prediction: 12%

Feb 28, 2027

Will Morgan Stanley disclose Net Interest Income from non-US banking subsidiaries (including Morgan Stanley Bank AG) of at least $750M for FY2026?

Prediction: 22%