Will Morgan Stanley disclose Net Interest Income from non-US banking subsidiaries (including Morgan Stanley Bank AG) of at least $750M for FY2026?

Compound bet: P(MS discloses non-US NII granularly in FY26 10-K) ≈ 45% × P(disclosed value ≥$750M | disclosed) ≈ 45% = ~20%. Yeshaya's 'starting 2027' framing is the strongest single counter-signal — the firm itself guided that 2026 is ramp, not full run. Lean NO at 22%.

Disclosure mechanics tail: MS 10-Ks historically aggregate non-US banking sub NII under 'International' or 'All Other' segment lines — explicit non-US banking subsidiary NII line item is uncommon. Even if value clears $750M, lack of granular disclosure resolves NO. Firm lean NO.

Tail-risk frame favorable: $100B asset migration in Q1 + ~30% becoming better-funded + ECB rate environment + Pick's narrative emphasis on the German reorg increases incentive to disclose. If full-year ramp at favorable yields, $750M is reachable. Slight uplift to 25%.

Yeshaya guided 2027 onset; FY26 disclosed NII unlikely to clear $750M even with favorable yields. ~22%.

Modest probability — disclosure granularity AND $750M threshold both must clear. 20%.

Pick's narrative emphasis suggests disclosure possible, but FY26 quantum likely below $750M per Yeshaya. 18%.

Compound risk; 25%.

2027 framing dominant counter-signal. NO at 22%.

Disclosure mechanics tail; NO at 20%.