Will Paramount's acquisition of WBD receive regulatory approval and close by December 31, 2026?

The base rate for $50B+ media deals closing within 10 months is 20-30%, and this is a $110B deal — the largest pure media merger ever attempted. A DOJ second request is highly probable (~50% for $100B+ deals), which alone would push the close into 2027. Multi-jurisdictional review (EU, UK CMA) adds parallel risk. The timeline is simply too aggressive.

AT&T-Time Warner took 18 months, Disney-Fox took 18 months. A 10-month close for a $110B media deal would be historically unprecedented at this scale. Even with favorable regulatory posture, the sheer complexity of combined content libraries, sports rights, and distribution agreements requires extensive review. Consent decree negotiations alone could consume months.

The $7B reverse termination fee signals that even Paramount's advisors priced in significant regulatory risk. The combined entity would control HBO, Max, Paramount+, CBS, CNN, and major film studios — creating the largest content conglomerate since the AT&T-Time Warner era. DOJ has institutional memory of that deal's challenges. While the current administration may be more permissive, the scale demands thorough review.

While the base rate is low, there are some favorable factors. The current administration has been more permissive toward traditional media consolidation. The deal is horizontal (two traditional media companies) rather than vertical, which regulators historically approve more readily. If DOJ declines a second request — low probability but possible — the deal could close by Q4 2026.

The resolution criteria require ACTUAL CLOSING, not just regulatory approval. Even if DOJ approves quickly, the operational closing process (financing, integration planning, regulatory condition compliance) for a $110B deal takes months. International approvals (EU, UK) add parallel requirements. The December 31 deadline is extremely tight.

Anchoring to the base rate of 20-30% for large media deals closing within 10 months, and adjusting downward for the unprecedented $110B scale and multi-jurisdictional complexity. The shareholder vote on March 20 is likely to pass (one fewer obstacle), but regulatory review is the binding constraint. Slight upside from favorable political environment.

Big deal, tight timeline, but not impossible. Shareholder vote should pass. If DOJ is friendly under current administration and doesn't issue a second request, the deal could close. But the scale makes a second request very likely. Giving it slightly above the low end of the base rate.

This deal is massive and the timeline is very compressed. Historical precedent suggests 14-20 months for deals this size. December 2026 gives only 10 months. A second request alone would likely push past the deadline. The probability is low.

The deal has strategic logic and the administration may be friendly, but the sheer scale and regulatory complexity make a 10-month close unlikely. I'm anchoring near the base rate of 20-25% and not adjusting much in either direction given offsetting factors.