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NFLX Forecast Markets

Netflix, Inc.

7
Active Markets
6
Resolved
47%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Apr 17, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM-HIGH
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

13 markets

Will Netflix's advertising revenue reach a $3B annualized run-rate by Q3 2026?

Active
70%
Likely Yes
62%70%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — management reaffirmation
92% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Netflix achieve 31%+ full-year FY2026 operating margin?

Active
88%
Likely Yes
80%88%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — strong H1 margin trajectory
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Netflix maintain 8%+ U.S. TV time share through Q2 2026?

Active
83%
Likely Yes
82%83%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — engagement record continues
92% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will a majority of covering analysts rate NFLX as Buy/Overweight by June 30, 2026?

Active
70%
Likely Yes
71%70%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — mixed analyst reaction
91% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Netflix repurchase $5B+ in stock during H1 2026 (January-June)?

Active
18%
Likely No
23%18%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — Q1 buyback pace below target trajectory
93% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Paramount's acquisition of WBD receive regulatory approval and close by December 31, 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
86% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Netflix report Q2 2026 revenue exceeding $13.0B?

Active
27%
Likely No
55%27%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — Q2 guide
91% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.36

Will the DOJ file suit to block the Netflix-WBD merger by December 31, 2026?

Resolved
57%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.325
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will Netflix abandon or withdraw the WBD acquisition by December 31, 2026?

Resolved
28%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.518
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Netflix and DOJ announce consent decree negotiations for the WBD deal by June 30, 2026?

Resolved
20%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.040
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Netflix disclose permanent financing terms for the WBD acquisition by June 30, 2026?

Resolved
35%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.122
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will the EU Commission open a Phase II investigation into the Netflix-WBD merger by September 30, 2026?

Resolved
37%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.137
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Netflix report Q1 2026 revenue above $12.5B?

Resolved
53%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.281
Apr 17, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

May 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Netflix report Q1 2026 revenue above $12.5B?
NOBrier: 0.28
Jul 15, 2026
Will a majority of covering analysts rate NFLX as Buy/Overweight by June 30, 2026?
Prediction: 70%
Jul 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Netflix and DOJ announce consent decree negotiations for the WBD deal by June 30, 2026?
NOBrier: 0.04
Jul 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Netflix disclose permanent financing terms for the WBD acquisition by June 30, 2026?
NOBrier: 0.12
Jul 31, 2026
Will Netflix report Q2 2026 revenue exceeding $13.0B?
Prediction: 27%
Aug 15, 2026
Will Netflix repurchase $5B+ in stock during H1 2026 (January-June)?
Prediction: 18%
Sep 30, 2026
Will Netflix maintain 8%+ U.S. TV time share through Q2 2026?
Prediction: 83%
Oct 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will the EU Commission open a Phase II investigation into the Netflix-WBD merger by September 30, 2026?
NOBrier: 0.14
Nov 15, 2026
Will Netflix's advertising revenue reach a $3B annualized run-rate by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 70%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Paramount's acquisition of WBD receive regulatory approval and close by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 20%
Jan 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will the DOJ file suit to block the Netflix-WBD merger by December 31, 2026?
NOBrier: 0.32
Jan 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will Netflix abandon or withdraw the WBD acquisition by December 31, 2026?
YESBrier: 0.52
Jan 31, 2027
Will Netflix achieve 31%+ full-year FY2026 operating margin?
Prediction: 88%