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NFLX Forecast Markets
Netflix, Inc.
7
Active Markets
6
Resolved
47%
Avg Probability
All Markets
13 markets
Will Netflix's advertising revenue reach a $3B annualized run-rate by Q3 2026?
70%
Likely Yes
62%70%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — management reaffirmation
92% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Netflix achieve 31%+ full-year FY2026 operating margin?
88%
Likely Yes
80%88%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — strong H1 margin trajectory
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Netflix maintain 8%+ U.S. TV time share through Q2 2026?
83%
Likely Yes
82%83%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — engagement record continues
92% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will a majority of covering analysts rate NFLX as Buy/Overweight by June 30, 2026?
70%
Likely Yes
71%70%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — mixed analyst reaction
91% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Netflix repurchase $5B+ in stock during H1 2026 (January-June)?
18%
Likely No
23%18%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — Q1 buyback pace below target trajectory
93% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Paramount's acquisition of WBD receive regulatory approval and close by December 31, 2026?
20%
Likely No
86% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Netflix report Q2 2026 revenue exceeding $13.0B?
27%
Likely No
55%27%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — Q2 guide
91% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.36
Will the DOJ file suit to block the Netflix-WBD merger by December 31, 2026?
57%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.325Feb 26, 2026
IG: 1.00
Will Netflix abandon or withdraw the WBD acquisition by December 31, 2026?
28%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.518Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Netflix and DOJ announce consent decree negotiations for the WBD deal by June 30, 2026?
20%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.040Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Netflix disclose permanent financing terms for the WBD acquisition by June 30, 2026?
35%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.122Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the EU Commission open a Phase II investigation into the Netflix-WBD merger by September 30, 2026?
37%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.137Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Netflix report Q1 2026 revenue above $12.5B?
53%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.281Apr 17, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Jul 15, 2026
Will a majority of covering analysts rate NFLX as Buy/Overweight by June 30, 2026?Prediction: 70%
Jul 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Netflix and DOJ announce consent decree negotiations for the WBD deal by June 30, 2026? NOBrier: 0.04
Jul 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Netflix disclose permanent financing terms for the WBD acquisition by June 30, 2026? NOBrier: 0.12
Oct 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will the EU Commission open a Phase II investigation into the Netflix-WBD merger by September 30, 2026? NOBrier: 0.14
Nov 15, 2026
Will Netflix's advertising revenue reach a $3B annualized run-rate by Q3 2026?Prediction: 70%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Paramount's acquisition of WBD receive regulatory approval and close by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 20%
Jan 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will the DOJ file suit to block the Netflix-WBD merger by December 31, 2026? NOBrier: 0.32
Jan 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will Netflix abandon or withdraw the WBD acquisition by December 31, 2026? YESBrier: 0.52