NFLXActive

Will Netflix achieve 31%+ full-year FY2026 operating margin?

Resolves January 31, 2027(257d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

88%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement95%

Predictions3 runs

Last UpdatedApril 17, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

80%

Feb 26

+8pp

Current

88%

Apr 17

Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — strong H1 margin trajectory

Q1 2026 operating margin of 32.3% and Q2 guide of 32.6% provide 100bps+ buffer above the 31% threshold. Management reaffirmed FY2026 31.5% margin target; Q3/Q4 expected to grow margin YoY to hit full-year target.

Why This Question Matters

Tests margin expansion delivery — management guided to 31.5% FY2026 operating margin. Achievement validates ACHIEVABLE expectations classification; a miss would re-escalate toward DEMANDING. Margin expansion is core to the standalone Netflix thesis.

EXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 87% – 90%Aggregate: 88%

Individual Predictions(3 runs)

opusRun 1

90%

Question asks for 31%+ FY2026 operating margin — the threshold is 50bps below management's 31.5% target. Q1 delivered 32.3%, Q2 guided at 32.6%. Even if H2 margins compress to 29-30% (very adverse scenario vs guidance), average would still be ~30.5%. For the FY to fall below 31%, H2 would need to average ~29% — far below guidance and historical. Q1 beat by 60bps already builds buffer. Probability substantially upgraded from 0.80.

Q1 32.3% + Q2 32.6% guide = strong first-half bufferThreshold 31% is 50bps below 31.5% targetAdverse H2 scenario still yields >30% FY

sonnetRun 1

87%

Strong Q1 (32.3%) and Q2 guide (32.6%) provide 100bps+ buffer above threshold. Content amort timing is what pressures Q2 margin YoY, not structural deterioration. Management explicitly said Q3/Q4 will grow margin YoY to deliver FY 31.5%. Only a material downside surprise in H2 (e.g., content write-offs, ad revenue miss) could push below 31%. Historical: Netflix has not issued a margin guide and missed materially in 3+ years.

Q1 actual + Q2 guide = 100bps bufferManagement track record of margin deliveryOnly material downside shock threatens 31% threshold

haikuRun 1

88%

Q1 margin 32.3%. Q2 guide 32.6%. FY guide 31.5%. Threshold 31%. Strong first-half buffer. Management track record on margin delivery is excellent.

Strong Q1 actual and Q2 guideBuffer above thresholdTrack record

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Netflix reports full-year FY2026 (calendar year January 1 through December 31, 2026) GAAP operating margin of 31.0% or greater, as disclosed in the Q4 2026 / full-year 2026 earnings press release (Form 8-K), shareholder letter, or 10-K annual report. Operating margin is calculated as GAAP operating income divided by GAAP total revenue. Resolves NO if full-year FY2026 GAAP operating margin is below 31.0%. If Netflix reports a non-GAAP operating margin that exceeds 31% but GAAP operating margin is below 31%, this resolves NO — only GAAP figures count.

Resolution Source

Netflix Q4 2026 / full-year 2026 earnings press release (Form 8-K), shareholder letter, or 10-K annual report filed with SEC EDGAR.

Source Trigger

FY2026 operating margin delivery — can Netflix achieve guided 31.5% margin while spending $20B on content?

myth-meterEXPECTATIONS_PRICEDHIGH

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