Will a majority of covering analysts rate NFLX as Buy/Overweight by June 30, 2026?

Deal-risk downgrades have a strong historical reversion rate (>70% within 90 days), and Netflix's organic fundamentals remain excellent. The 4-month window to June 30 is generous. However, pre-deal consensus split is unknown — if it was already borderline, even full deal-downgrade reversals may not cross 50%.

While deal-risk removal is clearly positive, the stock's post-deal recovery to ~$93.67 (still below pre-deal $113) creates a window where analysts may hold Neutral ratings on valuation grounds. Q1 earnings in April is the key catalyst — a strong print would accelerate upgrades, but any miss could delay them.

Netflix historically maintains majority-Buy consensus during periods of operational strength. The deal overhang was the sole reason for downgrades. With 4 months until resolution, there is ample time for the typical upgrade cycle. The breakup fee adds incremental positive catalyst. Moderate confidence as the exact starting consensus is the key unknown.

The reference class is compelling — >70% of deal-risk downgraders upgrade within 90 days, and Netflix's organic story is intact. FY2026 guidance of $50.7-51.7B revenue with 31.5% margins gives analysts strong fundamental support for Buy ratings. The Q1 earnings print should catalyze a wave of upgrades.

While deal-risk downgrades should reverse, some friction exists. Analysts at larger firms have longer internal review processes, and some may wait for Q1 10-Q data before upgrading. Valuation at ~40-45x forward earnings post-recovery could keep some analysts at Neutral even with positive fundamental view.

The balance of evidence favors YES. Deal-period downgrades were clearly event-driven, and the event has been removed. Netflix's ad revenue growth to $3B and margin expansion provide fresh fundamental catalysts. The main risk is that pre-deal consensus was already close to 50/50, making the threshold harder to clear definitively.

Deal risk removed, strong fundamentals, and generous timeline make this a likely YES. Analysts follow momentum and the stock's recovery will prompt upgrades. Most downgrades were clearly tied to deal risk and will reverse quickly.

While the direction is clear (toward more Buy ratings), achieving majority specifically depends on the starting point. If only 4-5 analysts downgraded during the deal period and pre-deal was 48% Buy, reversal alone may not cross 50%. Some uncertainty about the magnitude of shift needed.

Historical pattern strongly favors upgrades after catalyst removal. Netflix is a high-quality growth company with improving margins and new revenue streams. Four months is enough time for most analysts to publish revised ratings. Probability leans solidly YES.