Will Netflix maintain 8%+ U.S. TV time share through Q2 2026?

Netflix has maintained above 8% U.S. TV time share for at least 6 consecutive quarters since mid-2024, with a record 8.6% in Q3 2025. The 8% threshold allows for 60bps of decline from the record — a meaningful buffer. The Q2 2024 direct comparable was 8.4%, well above the 8% floor. The $20B content budget ensures a robust content pipeline for Q2 2026, and the ad-supported tier has expanded the addressable audience, structurally supporting engagement. Password-sharing enforcement is fully normalized with no reversal risk. The resolution requires EVERY month above 8%, which introduces some single-month risk, but the established structural floor makes a sub-8% month unlikely absent a major disruption.

The reference class of 85-90% probability for established streaming platforms maintaining TV time share within +/-50bps is applicable here. Netflix needs to stay at 8.0% or above in every month from January through June 2026 — that is 6 discrete months where any single sub-8% reading causes failure. While the structural floor appears to be 8.0-8.4%, the every-month requirement creates a higher bar than a quarterly average. Spring months (April-May) represent the weakest seasonal period for streaming as outdoor activity increases. A single soft content month coinciding with seasonal weakness could produce a 7.9% reading. This tail risk discounts the probability modestly from the base case.

Taking an engagement-driven view: Netflix's TV time share has been on a rising trajectory, not a declining one. The step-change from ~7% to 8%+ in mid-2024 was driven by password-sharing enforcement, but the continued rise to 8.6% by Q3 2025 indicates genuine engagement growth beyond the enforcement bump. The $20B content budget, live events strategy, and ad-tier expansion all support continued engagement momentum. YouTube at 10.4% is growing but competes in a different content niche (user-generated, short-form); it is not directly cannibalizing Netflix's scripted/premium content engagement. The secular decline in broadcast/cable continues to benefit all streaming platforms, expanding the total addressable engagement pool.

Strong structural case for YES. Netflix has been above 8% since Q2 2024, and the trend is up (8.4% to 8.6%). The $20B content budget and expanding ad tier support continued engagement. However, the every-month resolution criterion is strictly demanding — one weak month in a 6-month window causes failure. Q2 includes April and May, which are historically softer for streaming. If Netflix has a content gap in April (delayed release, no major returning series) combined with spring seasonal weakness, a single-month dip to 7.8-7.9% is plausible but not probable. The 85-90% base rate for maintaining share within range is the right anchor.

The every-month criterion is the key analytical question. If we estimate the probability of any single month falling below 8% at roughly 3-5% (given the structural floor and buffer), then the probability of ALL 6 months staying above 8% is approximately (0.95-0.97)^6 = 73-83%. However, the months are not independent — if Netflix's content strategy and subscriber base support 8%+, most months will be correlated positively. The independence assumption overstates the risk. A more realistic model treats the underlying engagement level as a random variable with a mean of ~8.3-8.4% and small monthly volatility, in which case the probability of all 6 months above 8% is higher, around 82-86%.

Applying a Nielsen methodology risk discount. The Gauge report methodology has been updated in the past, and any reclassification (e.g., how YouTube TV vs. YouTube is counted, or how connected TV devices report viewing) could shift Netflix's reported share by 20-30bps. A methodology change in early 2026 that shifts 30bps down could bring Netflix to 8.3% base instead of 8.6%, reducing the buffer to 30bps. Additionally, YouTube's continued ascent (10.4% and growing) represents genuine competitive pressure — YouTube is not just a different niche; it competes directly for evening viewing time. Still lean YES but the every-month requirement and measurement methodology risk warrant a modest discount.

Netflix has maintained 8%+ for 6+ consecutive quarters. Record 8.6% in Q3 2025 shows upward trend. Q2 2024 comparable at 8.4% — well above threshold. $20B content budget ensures robust Q2 2026 pipeline. Ad tier expands audience. Password enforcement gains fully embedded. Very strong structural floor above 8%. The every-month criterion adds risk but the buffer is large enough.

Strong case for maintaining 8%+. The floor is well-established and the trend is upward. The every-month criterion is the main risk — 6 chances for a sub-8% reading. Spring seasonal softness in April-May is the vulnerable window. If Netflix has a weak content month in spring, a dip to 7.8-7.9% is the realistic failure mode. But even Q1 2024 (pre-password enforcement peak) showed ~7.0%, and the structural shift since then adds a permanent ~100bps. A sub-8% month would require a significant engagement shock.

Taking a more cautious view on the every-month requirement. Six months is a lot of opportunities for a single sub-8% reading. Netflix's margin above 8% has been 40-60bps on average, which is not enormous. A single content gap month, a Nielsen methodology tweak, or a YouTube viral moment that pulls viewership could produce one anomalous month. The market is asking whether Netflix never dips below 8% in a 6-month window — not just that it averages above 8%. This strict criterion warrants a discount from the 85-90% base rate. Still lean YES but with more uncertainty than the structural floor suggests.