NFLXActive

Will Netflix repurchase $5B+ in stock during H1 2026 (January-June)?

Resolves August 15, 2026(87d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

18%

Likely No

Model Agreement93%

Predictions3 runs

Last UpdatedApril 17, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

23%

Feb 26

-5pp

Current

18%

Apr 17

Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — Q1 buyback pace below target trajectory

Q1 actual buyback of $1.3B (13.5M shares) is 26% of the $5B H1 target. To reach $5B by June, Q2 would need $3.7B — nearly 3x the Q1 pace. Management framed buybacks as 'resumed' (steady-state), not accelerated. $6.8B remaining authorization allows but pattern suggests steady pace.

Why This Question Matters

Netflix announced buyback resumption post-deal. Buyback pace signals management conviction in intrinsic value and validates the DISCIPLINED capital deployment assessment. $5B+ in H1 would represent aggressive capital return (~60% of annual FCF).

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 16% – 20%Aggregate: 18%

Individual Predictions(3 runs)

opusRun 1

18%

Q1 actual was $1.3B — that's 26% of the $5B H1 target after half the period. To hit $5B in H1, Q2 must be $3.7B — nearly 3x the Q1 pace. Netflix has historically averaged $1-2B/quarter in buybacks when active; $3.7B in a single quarter would be an unusual acceleration. Management did not signal 'catch-up' buyback behavior — their framing was 'resumed buyback program,' consistent with steady-state, not catch-up. The $2.8B termination fee gives them cash flexibility, but they've already signaled a cautious approach to deploying it. Strong downgrade from 0.23 to 0.18.

Q1 $1.3B implies steady-state pace, not catch-upQ2 would need $3.7B — unprecedented single-quarter paceManagement framing is 'resumed,' not accelerated

sonnetRun 1

20%

Q1's $1.3B pace annualizes to $5.2B for the full year — on track for FY total but not H1 target. $5B in H1 would require Netflix to accelerate Q2 to ~3x the Q1 pace. Post-earnings stock drop of ~10% to ~$97 may opportunistically increase buyback attractiveness at lower prices, and management has $6.8B remaining authorization. But a 3x step-up in single quarter is rare. Slight downgrade from 0.23 to 0.20.

Q1 pace annualizes to $5.2B FY, not $5B H1Post-earnings price drop may trigger opportunistic accelerationAuthorization allows but behavior rarely does 3x jump

haikuRun 1

16%

Q1 $1.3B. Need $3.7B in Q2. Unprecedented pace. Management signaled steady-state. Low probability.

$1.3B Q1 is steady pace$3.7B Q2 requiredSteady-state messaging

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Netflix discloses aggregate common stock repurchases of $5.0 billion or greater during the six-month period from January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026, as reported in SEC filings. The total will be calculated by summing share repurchase amounts disclosed in the Q1 2026 10-Q (for January-March) and Q2 2026 10-Q (for April-June), specifically from the 'Repurchases of common stock' line item in the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows or the share repurchase table in the notes to financial statements. Resolves NO if total H1 2026 repurchases are below $5.0 billion. Open market repurchases, accelerated share repurchase (ASR) programs, and privately negotiated transactions all count toward the total.

Resolution Source

Netflix Q1 2026 10-Q and Q2 2026 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR. Q2 10-Q is typically filed within 40 days of quarter end (by August 9, 2026).

Source Trigger

Capital allocation discipline post-deal — share buyback resumption signals management conviction in organic value

consolidation-calibratorCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM

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