NFLXActive

Will Netflix report Q2 2026 revenue exceeding $13.0B?

Resolves July 31, 2026(70d)

IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

27%

Likely No

Model Agreement91%

Predictions3 runs

Last UpdatedApril 17, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

55%

Feb 26

-28pp

Current

27%

Apr 17

Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16) — Q2 guide

Q2 2026 guidance of +13% YoY against $11.08B Q2'25 base implies ~$12.52B — materially below the $13.0B threshold. Requires ~4% beat on guidance, above Netflix's typical 1-3% beat range.

Why This Question Matters

Post-deal-abandonment replenishment market. Tests whether Netflix's organic revenue momentum sustains beyond Q1 2026. $13.0B threshold is consistent with high-end FY2026 guidance ($50.7-51.7B). Confirms the 'organic growth story' thesis that justified STANDARD_DILIGENCE posture.

COMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 25% – 30%Aggregate: 27%

Individual Predictions(3 runs)

opusRun 1

27%

Q2 2026 guidance is explicit: +13% YoY revenue growth (12% FX-neutral). Against Q2 2025 revenue of ~$11.08B, this implies Q2 2026 guided revenue of approximately $12.52B. Netflix's historical beat magnitude is 1-3% above guidance; even a 4% beat on the $12.52B guided midpoint yields only $13.02B — barely above the threshold. More realistically, a 1-3% beat gives $12.65-12.90B. The $13.0B threshold is materially above guided trajectory. Q1 came in 'slightly above internal forecast' — modest beat, not a structural upside surprise. Probability of clearing $13B is low.

Q2 guide +13% implies ~$12.52B vs $13.0B threshold (~4% gap)Historical beat magnitude 1-3% insufficient to clearQ1 beat was 'slight' — no signal of large Q2 upside

sonnetRun 1

30%

The +13% Q2 guide against a baseline of ~$11.08B implies Q2 2026 revenue of ~$12.52B. Management said Q2 will have the highest YoY content amortization growth rate in 2026 (32.6% operating margin vs 34.1% prior year), which is a margin optics issue, not a revenue problem — but it signals management is not expecting a revenue surprise. The $13.0B threshold requires a ~4% beat on guide, which is at the top of Netflix's historical beat range. FX-neutral growth is 12%, so any USD strengthening compresses reported revenue further.

+13% guide against $11.08B = $12.52B midpoint4% beat required — at the top of historical rangeManagement signaled content amort pressure, no revenue upside narrative

haikuRun 1

25%

Q2 guide is $12.52B (13% YoY from $11.08B). $13.0B threshold needs 4% beat. Netflix typically beats by 1-3%. FX is a wildcard. No evidence of acceleration from Q1. Probability low.

Q2 guide $12.52B$13B threshold is 4% above guideTypical beat 1-3%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Netflix reports total revenue of $13.0 billion or greater for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, as disclosed in the Q2 2026 earnings press release (Form 8-K) or shareholder letter. Resolves NO if reported Q2 2026 total revenue is below $13.0 billion. Revenue figures are based on GAAP reported revenue as stated in the primary earnings disclosure. If Netflix changes its fiscal year or reporting period such that Q2 2026 is not a standard three-month period ending June 30, 2026, resolution will use the closest comparable period.

Resolution Source

Netflix Q2 2026 earnings press release (Form 8-K filed with SEC EDGAR), shareholder letter, or 10-Q filing.

Source Trigger

Q2 2026 organic revenue momentum — does Netflix sustain high-teens growth without deal distraction?

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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