Will New Afton C-Zone achieve 12,000+ tonnes per day processing rate by Q2 2026?

C-Zone was 79% construction complete at Q3-end 2025, with ramp-up to full 16,000 tpd capacity beginning 2026. The 12,000 tpd threshold is 75% of full capacity. Block cave ramp-ups typically take 12-18 months from first draw to nameplate. If ramp-up started Q4 2025/Q1 2026, reaching 12,000 tpd by Q2 2026 (6-9 months later) is ambitious but achievable given management's EXCEEDING track record, demonstrated by B3 outperformance. The committee's E3 confidence in operational execution supports this, but block cave ramp-ups involve inherent geological uncertainty.

Block cave ramp-ups are complex operations. Even with 79% construction complete, the transition from construction to production involves draw point establishment, ground conditioning, ventilation optimization, and material handling system commissioning. Reaching 12,000 tpd within 6-9 months of initial ramp-up is at the faster end of industry norms. The merger may also create organizational distraction during the critical ramp-up period. Management has earned credibility through consistent delivery, but this specific milestone asks a lot of the timeline.

The committee rated OPERATIONAL_EXECUTION as EXCEEDING at E3 — the highest evidence level — based on consistent milestone delivery across B3, Rainy River, and debt repayment. This track record suggests management has been conservative in their timelines and has a pattern of meeting or exceeding them. C-Zone at 79% complete in Q3 2025 implies major construction was finishing by year-end 2025. The question requires 12,000 tpd average for any reported period in Q1 or Q2, which gives approximately 6 months of ramp-up from likely January 2026 start. This is plausible but not certain.

Management has earned the benefit of the doubt. They delivered B3 ahead of plan, repaid debt ahead of schedule, and hit production targets consistently. C-Zone at 79% complete implies ramp-up should be well underway by Q1 2026. The 12,000 tpd threshold gives room below nameplate. However, block caves don't ramp linearly — early months typically produce at lower rates as draw points are established. Probability slightly above coin-flip based on management credibility.

The question is whether the ramp-up curve reaches 75% of nameplate within approximately two quarters of starting. Industry data suggests block cave ramp-ups typically reach 70-80% of design capacity within 12-18 months. Achieving this in 6-9 months would be faster than average but consistent with New Gold's track record of outperformance at New Afton. The B3 experience gives the team site-specific knowledge that reduces uncertainty. Slightly above 50% but not confident enough for higher.

Weighting management's track record more heavily. The committee assigned EXCEEDING at E3 — this is the strongest possible operational confidence rating. Management anticipated this ramp-up and designed the transition to overlap with B3 production. The 79% construction complete figure as of Q3 suggests that by now (March 2026) construction may be essentially complete with several months of ramp-up already underway. If ramp-up began in late 2025, reaching 12,000 tpd by mid-2026 is quite reasonable.

79% construction complete at Q3 2025, EXCEEDING operational track record, B3 cave outperformed. 12,000 tpd is achievable given management credibility, but block cave ramp-ups carry inherent uncertainty. Slightly above coin-flip.

Management consistently delivers on operational milestones. C-Zone construction well advanced. However, block cave ramp to 75% of nameplate within 6-9 months of initial production is ambitious. Moderate probability.

Strong management execution history, B3 outperformance at same site, construction nearly complete. The team has done this before at New Afton. 12,000 tpd by Q2 2026 is achievable. Main risk is geological surprises during draw point establishment.