Will New Gold's consolidated AISC fall below $900/oz in any reported quarter of H1 2026?

Consolidated AISC was $966/oz in Q3 2025, needing to decline another 7% to break below $900. The primary drivers of further compression are: C-Zone ramp-up (spreading fixed costs over more tonnes), continued strong copper by-product credits, and Rainy River sustaining capital tapering. C-Zone should be actively ramping during H1 2026, which would lower unit costs. However, the $966/oz figure benefited from high copper prices for by-product credits. New Afton's negative AISC (-$595/oz) could increase if copper weakens. The EXCEEDING operational track record supports further improvement.

The committee noted that New Afton's deeply negative AISC is as much a copper price indicator as a gold cost measure. If copper prices weaken in H1 2026, the by-product credit shrinks and consolidated AISC rises. The $966/oz Q3 figure was at peak copper credits. A more normalized copper environment could keep AISC above $900. Additionally, Rainy River's $1,043/oz AISC needs further improvement, and underground development challenges (labor constraints in Ontario) could limit cost reduction. The trajectory is right but the $900 threshold may require one more quarter of C-Zone ramp-up.

The AISC trajectory is clearly declining — from $1,239 (FY2024) to $966 (Q3 2025). The question asks if ANY quarter in H1 2026 breaks below $900, which gives two chances. The C-Zone ramp-up is the biggest AISC tailwind as it increases throughput at New Afton, spreading fixed costs. If Q1 doesn't achieve it due to early-ramp costs, Q2 likely will as throughput increases. The operational execution track record (EXCEEDING, E3) supports continued improvement. Slight lean toward YES but conditional on copper prices holding.

AISC compression from $966/oz to below $900/oz requires a 7% improvement. C-Zone ramp-up, Rainy River improvements, and favorable commodity prices (for by-product credits) all contribute. Management's 2027 target of $400-500/oz implies sub-$900 should be achieved well before then. The committee's realistic base case of $600-700/oz also implies sub-$900 within the next few quarters. The only risk is a copper price decline or C-Zone ramp-up delay. Two quarters give adequate opportunity.

The Fugazi Filter flagged that AISC at New Afton depends heavily on copper by-product credits. At negative $595/oz, the copper credit is doing enormous work. If copper prices decline 10-15% in H1 2026, New Afton's AISC could swing from -$595 to near zero, which would increase consolidated AISC significantly — potentially back above $1,000. Meanwhile, Rainy River at $1,043/oz needs continued improvement. The AISC number is a volatile metric that depends on commodity price mix, not just operational execution. Coin-flip given this sensitivity.

The operational trajectory strongly supports sub-$900 AISC. C-Zone ramp adds throughput, Rainy River has shown rapid cost improvement (-39% QoQ at Q3), and sustaining capital is tapering. If copper holds near current levels, the math clearly works. The question gives two quarters. Even if Q1 has ramp-up costs that inflate AISC, Q2 should benefit from higher throughput. The committee's EXCEEDING assessment and E3 evidence level give high confidence in operational delivery. Slight lean above 50% reflecting operational confidence.

AISC at $966 trending down. C-Zone ramp-up is the key driver. Two quarters give good chance. Copper price is the swing factor. EXCEEDING track record supports continued improvement.

7% further decline from $966/oz is achievable with C-Zone ramp and sustained copper credits. Two quarterly chances. Main risk is copper price decline removing by-product credit benefit. Moderately above coin-flip.

Management targeting $400-500/oz by 2027 means sub-$900 should arrive by H1 2026. The declining trajectory from $1,239 to $966 shows momentum. C-Zone ramp-up is the biggest lever. Copper is a risk but current prices support continued credits.