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Will Oklo's cumulative ATM equity facility utilization exceed $500M by December 31, 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The $1.5B ATM facility filed December 2025 signals management expects to need significantly more capital. Heavy utilization would accelerate dilution. The market tests whether the dilution pace matches or exceeds the 44% growth in shares seen in 2025.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
$1.2B cash provides substantial runway. ATM utilization depends on whether management sees near-term capital need. At current burn rates, no urgency.
If stock price rises, management may opportunistically use the ATM. Rational to raise when price is high.
June 2025 secondary already raised ~$600M. Additional $500M within a year would be aggressive.
ATM programs typically used gradually. $500M in 12 months is high velocity.
Most ATM programs never fully utilize. 33% in one year is moderate but possible.
Moderate probability depending on stock price and capital strategy.
$500M is a high bar for one year. Possible but not likely.
If stock rallies, management will raise. Moderate probability.
Around 30% seems appropriate given cash position and potential needs.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Oklo discloses cumulative ATM proceeds exceeding $500M in any quarterly filing by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution Source
Oklo 10-Q/10-K filings, prospectus supplements
Source Trigger
ATM utilization exceeds $500M cumulatively
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