Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Will Oklo announce a binding PPA with specific $/MWh pricing by December 31, 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The 14 GW pipeline is entirely non-binding. A binding PPA with specific pricing would be the first real-world validation of unit economics and customer commitment. Without one, the pipeline remains aspirational.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Binding PPAs with specific pricing require a deployable reactor design with regulatory approval. Without NRC licensing, customers cannot commit to pricing for power from an unlicensed reactor.
Small chance of a contingent PPA with a willing counterparty like Meta. Data centers are desperate for power. But specific pricing is hard without construction cost clarity.
Industry precedent strongly suggests binding PPAs require at least design certification. The 14 GW pipeline is expressions of interest, not commitments.
Data center operators are signing exploratory agreements with multiple nuclear companies. Urgency for clean power may push some to commit earlier.
Resolution criteria specify specific pricing which is very difficult pre-licensing.
Small probability due to novel partnership structures in nuclear renaissance era.
Low probability without more regulatory certainty.
Specific pricing unlikely without construction cost clarity.
Data center demand may create unusual willingness for early PPAs.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Oklo files an 8-K or issues a press release announcing a binding power purchase agreement that includes specific $/MWh pricing terms by December 31, 2026.
Resolution Source
SEC filings (8-K) or official company press releases
Source Trigger
First binding PPA signed with a data center customer
Full multi-lens equity analysis