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OKLOActive

Will Oklo's FY2025 total operating expenses exceed $100M?

Resolves April 30, 2026

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Management guided $65-80M annual burn, but Q3 2025 quarterly expenses were ~$30M (67% above Q1). If FY2025 total exceeds $100M, it signals faster-than-expected cash depletion and potential runway compression.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 50% – 60%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

Q1-Q3 opex: ~$18M, ~$25M, ~$30M = $73M through 9 months. If Q4 continues at Q3 rate, total would be ~$103M.

Q1-Q3 total ~$73MQ4 at Q3 rate puts total at ~$103MClear acceleration

opusRun 2

52%

Management guided $65-80M but actual spending has exceeded pace. Some Q3 expenses may be one-time.

Guidance was $65-80MPotential one-time itemsQ4 could moderate

opusRun 3

55%

Company is scaling operations. Even slight moderation from Q3 still puts total above $100M.

Scaling operationsNatural cost escalation

sonnetRun 1

60%

67% increase from Q1 to Q3. Even if Q4 moderates to $27M, total would be exactly $100M.

Strong trajectoryEven moderate Q4 hits threshold

sonnetRun 2

53%

Nuclear development does not follow seasonal patterns. Q4 may not moderate.

Non-seasonal spendingQ4 may not moderate

sonnetRun 3

57%

At $73M through Q3, only $27M needed in Q4. Given Q3 was $30M, this is a lower bar.

$27M thresholdQ3 was $30M

haikuRun 1

55%

Trajectory strongly suggests exceeding $100M.

Strong trajectory

haikuRun 2

50%

Borderline case. Could go either way.

Borderline total

haikuRun 3

58%

Acceleration pattern is clear. More likely than not to exceed $100M.

Clear acceleration

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Oklo's 10-K for FY2025 shows total operating expenses exceeding $100,000,000. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

Oklo FY2025 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Quarterly cash burn exceeds $25M for two consecutive quarters

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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