Will PayPal's branded checkout TPV growth fall below +2% currency-neutral in Q1 2026?

The trajectory from +5% to +1% in a single quarter represents severe deceleration. Q1 2026 faces the same structural headwinds: Apple Pay/Google Pay gaining share, merchants removing PayPal as default in key verticals. CEO transition adds execution uncertainty with no proven turnaround strategy. The committee found erosion is multi-geography and multi-vertical, suggesting structural rather than temporary pressure. The +1% Q4 figure already sits below the +2% threshold. For branded checkout to recover to +2%+ would require a reversal of established trends during a period of maximum organizational disruption. Seasonal patterns could provide modest uplift but unlikely sufficient to bridge the gap.

A 4pp deceleration in one quarter (+5% to +1%) with 4/4 committee agreement on ACCELERATING_EROSION is the decisive signal. Management's own admission of over-optimism about driving change validates that internal initiatives are not working. Platform wallets are gaining share in mobile checkout where secular growth is concentrated. New CEO transition means no new strategy will be implemented in time for Q1 results (covering Jan-Mar 2026, CEO fired Feb 2026). The committee explicitly ruled out temporary factors, finding weakness concentrated where platform wallets are strongest. The non-linear risk of merchant de-listing amplifies downside.

Q4 2025 delivered +1%, already below the +2% threshold. The critical question is whether Q1 sees any improvement. Arguments for improvement include seasonal patterns and potential comp effects if Q1 2025 was weak. Arguments against are overwhelming: structural competitive pressure from Apple Pay/Google Pay, merchant removal from defaults is sticky, CEO transition creates paralysis, management admitted core checkout conversion improvements are failing. For NO resolution, growth would need to nearly double from +1% to +2%+, requiring a catalyst that does not appear to exist. Small probability assigned to seasonal mean reversion.

Branded checkout went from +5% to +1% in one quarter. The threshold is +2%. Q4 was already below threshold. CEO was just fired with no replacement named. Apple Pay and Google Pay are structurally taking share across mobile checkout. The committee found multi-vertical, multi-geography weakness suggesting breadth not depth issues. The main risk to YES is that seasonal effects or metric reporting changes could push Q1 slightly above Q4. But the structural erosion pattern makes sustained sub-2% growth the clear base case.

The analysis facts paint a clear picture: branded checkout is in structural decline driven by platform wallet competition. The +5% to +1% collapse was acknowledged by management as reflecting failure of turnaround efforts. With CEO fired and no replacement, Q1 2026 will be a quarter of organizational paralysis, not recovery. The committee's finding that competitive pressure may be non-linear -- once merchants remove PayPal as default, reacquisition is difficult -- means the trend is more likely to continue than reverse. Even a modest seasonal bounce likely keeps growth below +2% given the severity of deceleration.

The momentum is clearly negative: +5% to +1% is a 4pp sequential drop. Even if the rate of decline slows (say only 1pp further decline), the result is 0% in Q1. To reach +2% from +1% requires acceleration during a CEO transition with structural competitive headwinds. The committee unanimously upgraded to ACCELERATING_EROSION. The unresolved debate about branded vs unbranded mix shift masking even worse branded trends suggests the true picture may be worse than +1%. Giving some probability to mean reversion and seasonal effects but base case is strongly YES.

Q4 branded checkout was +1%, already below the +2% threshold. Trend is sharply down from +5%. CEO fired, no new strategy in place. Platform wallets gaining share structurally. Committee at 4/4 ACCELERATING_EROSION. Odds strongly favor continued sub-2% growth in Q1 2026.

Sharp deceleration from +5% to +1% in one quarter. CEO fired. Management admitted failure of initiatives. Structural competition from Apple Pay and Google Pay in mobile checkout. No catalyst for reversal in Q1 timeframe. Already below threshold. Q1 likely stays below +2%.

The key fact is Q4 was already +1%, below the +2% threshold. For NO, branded checkout growth needs to rebound from +1% to +2%+ during a CEO transition with no new strategy and persistent structural headwinds. Small chance of seasonal lift or favorable comps providing a bounce, but structural factors dominate. Slightly lower confidence than other runs due to uncertainty around seasonal patterns.