Will Reddit's YoY revenue growth fall below 40% in any quarter by Q4 2026?

Revenue growth was 74% in Q3 2025 off a low base. As the base normalizes through 2026, maintaining 40%+ growth becomes increasingly difficult. The committee classified EXPECTATIONS_PRICED as DEMANDING, explicitly noting 40%+ sustained growth is required to justify valuation. Law of large numbers and base effects make sub-40% highly likely in at least one of four quarters.

74% growth in Q3 2025 creates a high comparison base for Q3 2026. Even with continued execution, base effects make it mathematically challenging to sustain 40%+ across all four 2026 quarters. Consensus already expects deceleration to ~56% for Q4 2025.

Reddit's execution has been strong but 40% sustained growth over 4 quarters from a growing base is demanding. However, Reddit has consistently beaten expectations, and the advertising market is healthy. There's meaningful probability they sustain above 40% through execution.

DEMANDING expectations classification reflects market requiring 40%+ growth. Base effects from strong 2025 make this increasingly difficult through 2026. At least one sub-40% quarter is probable.

Consensus already forecasts deceleration. 74% growth in Q3 2025 means Q3 2026 needs to grow from a much higher base. Data licensing stagnation removes a growth lever. At least one quarter likely dips below 40%.

Strong current growth but mathematical difficulty of sustaining 40%+ for 4 consecutive quarters from growing base. Committee flagged this as the key valuation risk.

Base effects from exceptional 2025 growth make 40%+ unsustainable across all 4 quarters. DEMANDING expectations classification supports this view.

Growth deceleration from 74% baseline is expected. Four quarters provides multiple opportunities for sub-40% print. However, Reddit has consistently exceeded expectations.

Consensus expects gradual deceleration. Over four quarters, at least one sub-40% print is more likely than not given base effects and data licensing headwinds.