Will REZI announce a CFO or CAO departure in 2026?

CFO Carlet's confirmed presence on the Q4 2025 earnings call provides a concrete anchor that he was retained through early 2026, and record EBITDA (+20% YoY) and corrected leverage (3.9x vs. feared 5.5x) remove the performance-pressure scenario. However, the historical base rate of 4 CFOs in 7 years (~57% annually) is a powerful prior, and the separation mechanics are now the dominant risk: a H2 2026 spin requires RemainCo and SpinCo each to have a CFO, structurally necessitating either a hire or an elevation that counts as a departure. The net is a modest downward revision from 52% given confirmed Q4 retention and improved financials, with the structural spin-off risk preventing a steeper decline.

The combination of confirmed CFO retention through Q4 earnings and materially better-than-feared financials (OCF $453M vs. feared $303M, no goodwill impairment) shifts the probability down from 52%. Record FY2025 performance substantially reduces the probability of a board-driven management change. The key structural offset is the spin-off: transactions of this scale and complexity routinely result in CFO transitions as one executive cannot simultaneously manage a carve-out while also running post-separation finance for two companies. The Form 10 filing and debt allocation still ahead represent peak stress for Carlet, but the improved financial platform may retain him through close.

The prior 52% was driven by the historical turnover base rate and CFO compliance concerns. The delta confirms Carlet was retained through the Q4 earnings cycle, which is modestly positive, and the financial results were strong. However, the spin-off is the dominant remaining factor: the question covers all of 2026, and the separation is reaffirmed for H2 2026. A spin-off of this complexity — carve-out financials, debt allocation, Honeywell litigation assignment, standalone projections — typically results in a CFO change either through promotion to one entity or departure, which would resolve the market YES. No disclosed retention agreements through transaction close, and the DEF14A 2026 has not yet confirmed OCF reinstatement in compensation. Probability moves to 48% — modestly below prior 52%.

The Q4 2025 earnings call confirms CFO Carlet remains in the role as of late February 2026, eliminating the early-2026 departure scenario that may have partially supported the 52% prior. Record financial performance across all metrics (revenue +11%, EBITDA +20%, OCF recovered to $453M) substantially reduces both board incentive and CFO voluntary departure incentive. The 9-month remaining resolution window (through Dec 31, 2026) is primarily a spin-off story: the H2 2026 separation creates genuine structural pressure for leadership bifurcation. Without disclosed retention agreements, the base rate (~57%) and spin mechanics still keep probability near-coin-flip, but the confirmed positive indicators nudge it below 50%.

CFO Carlet's active participation in Q4 earnings reduces the probability of a near-term surprise departure — a CFO preparing to leave typically becomes less visible, not more. The financial turnaround (leverage from 5.5x feared to 3.9x actual, EBITDA record) removes the crisis scenario that often precipitates CFO changes. Against this, the spin-off creates a structural question: does Carlet lead RemainCo or SpinCo post-separation, and does the other entity require a search? This structural dynamic is the primary remaining risk, and it applies to the back half of the year. On balance, this is a modest downward revision from 52% to approximately 43%.

The delta provides positive signals on near-term retention (CFO present, strong results) but structural risks remain elevated for the full-year horizon. The separation mechanics are the key variable: a spin expected H2 2026 means the leadership structure for two independent companies must be resolved, potentially triggering a CFO announcement even if Carlet leads one entity. The Form 4 late filing concern has not been directly addressed, and no retention bonuses or multi-year equity grants have been disclosed. The DEF14A 2026 will be the key monitoring event. Probability moves to 46% — slightly below prior as the near-term risk recedes but the structural risk holds.

CFO Carlet participated in Q4 earnings and financial results were strong, both reducing the near-term departure probability. The historical base rate (4 CFOs in 7 years) suggests high structural turnover, but the most recent data point — Carlet remaining through strong results — is a negative indicator for departure. The spin-off is a genuine risk but may result in Carlet leading one of the entities rather than departing entirely, which would resolve the market NO. Probability revised to 42%.

Strong Q4 results and confirmed CFO presence reduce departure probability meaningfully. The corrected leverage (3.9x, not 5.5x) removes the financial distress narrative that could have driven a board-mandated change. While the historical base rate is high, the current CFO appears to be executing well through synergy delivery (Snap One 18 months ahead) and a clean Q4 close. The separation remains a risk but also an opportunity — a CFO who has managed a complex spin could be more valuable and more likely to be retained as a key architect. Probability at 40%.

The overall update is moderately positive for CFO retention: record results, confirmed presence, corrected leverage. However, the question resolves YES on any departure through December 31, 2026 — a 10-month window still remains. The historical departure pattern (4 CFOs, 4 CAOs in 7 years) applied to the remainder of 2026 produces a ~44% unconditional probability even without the spin-off factor. Adding the spin-off complexity as a mild upward factor and the confirmed Q4 retention as a downward factor, the estimate lands at 44%.