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RIVNActive

Will Rivian's quarterly regulatory credit revenue fall below $50M in Q2 2026?

Resolves August 31, 2026(167d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

55%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement70%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 49% – 57%Aggregate: 55%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
49%

Structural decline is clear from $270M drop in Q4. As more EVs enter market, credit supply increases and prices decline.

structural decline from $270M Q4 dropincreasing EV market credit supplycredit price pressure
opusRun 2
52%

Management called future earning ability 'uncertain'. However, the exact quarterly pace of decline is hard to predict.

management calls future earning 'uncertain'quarterly pace of decline hard to predict
opusRun 3
55%

Policy changes could accelerate or temporarily stabilize the decline. The near-term trajectory is down but pace is uncertain.

policy change acceleration risknear-term trajectory downwardpace of decline uncertain
sonnetRun 1
57%

Structural decline is clear from $270M drop in Q4. As more EVs enter market, credit supply increases and prices decline.

structural decline from $270M Q4 dropincreasing EV market credit supplycredit price pressure
sonnetRun 2
51%

Management called future earning ability 'uncertain'. However, the exact quarterly pace of decline is hard to predict.

management calls future earning 'uncertain'quarterly pace of decline hard to predict
sonnetRun 3
54%

Policy changes could accelerate or temporarily stabilize the decline. The near-term trajectory is down but pace is uncertain.

policy change acceleration risknear-term trajectory downwardpace of decline uncertain
haikuRun 1
56%

Structural decline is clear from $270M drop in Q4. As more EVs enter market, credit supply increases and prices decline.

structural decline from $270M Q4 dropincreasing EV market credit supplycredit price pressure
haikuRun 2
53%

Management called future earning ability 'uncertain'. However, the exact quarterly pace of decline is hard to predict.

management calls future earning 'uncertain'quarterly pace of decline hard to predict
haikuRun 3
54%

Policy changes could accelerate or temporarily stabilize the decline. The near-term trajectory is down but pace is uncertain.

policy change acceleration risknear-term trajectory downwardpace of decline uncertain

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rivian's regulatory credit revenue (as disclosed in the 10-Q or earnings call) is below $50M for Q2 2026. Resolves NO if regulatory credit revenue is $50M or above. If not separately disclosed, resolves VOID.

Resolution Source

Rivian Q2 2026 10-Q or earnings call

Source Trigger

Regulatory credit revenue in Q1-Q2 2026 — confirm decline trajectory

gravy-gaugeREGULATORY_EXPOSUREMEDIUM
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