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RIVNActive

Will Rivian report positive automotive segment gross profit in Q4 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(348d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

35%
Likely No
Model Agreement72%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 31% – 39%Aggregate: 35%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
31%

R2 at $45K with 50% BOM reduction means tight margins. New vehicle launches typically have higher-than-planned costs in Year 1.

R2 $45K price with 50% BOM reductiontight margin profileYear 1 launch cost overruns typical
opusRun 2
34%

Management's own guidance says R2 negatively impacts automotive margins in Q2-Q3 before Q4 benefit. This is optimistic for launch curves.

management guides R2 negative margin impact Q2-Q3Q4 benefit assumption optimisticlaunch curve risk
opusRun 3
37%

R1/EDV continuing to improve helps, but R2 negative margin contribution may overwhelm improvements from existing products.

R1/EDV margin improvement continuingR2 negative contribution may overwhelm gains
sonnetRun 1
39%

R2 at $45K with 50% BOM reduction means tight margins. New vehicle launches typically have higher-than-planned costs in Year 1.

R2 $45K price with 50% BOM reductiontight margin profileYear 1 launch cost overruns typical
sonnetRun 2
33%

Management's own guidance says R2 negatively impacts automotive margins in Q2-Q3 before Q4 benefit. This is optimistic for launch curves.

management guides R2 negative margin impact Q2-Q3Q4 benefit assumption optimisticlaunch curve risk
sonnetRun 3
36%

R1/EDV continuing to improve helps, but R2 negative margin contribution may overwhelm improvements from existing products.

R1/EDV margin improvement continuingR2 negative contribution may overwhelm gains
haikuRun 1
38%

R2 at $45K with 50% BOM reduction means tight margins. New vehicle launches typically have higher-than-planned costs in Year 1.

R2 $45K price with 50% BOM reductiontight margin profileYear 1 launch cost overruns typical
haikuRun 2
35%

Management's own guidance says R2 negatively impacts automotive margins in Q2-Q3 before Q4 benefit. This is optimistic for launch curves.

management guides R2 negative margin impact Q2-Q3Q4 benefit assumption optimisticlaunch curve risk
haikuRun 3
36%

R1/EDV continuing to improve helps, but R2 negative margin contribution may overwhelm improvements from existing products.

R1/EDV margin improvement continuingR2 negative contribution may overwhelm gains

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rivian reports positive gross profit (above $0) for the Automotive segment in Q4 2026 as disclosed in the Q4 2026 earnings release or 10-K. Resolves NO if automotive segment gross profit is negative or zero.

Resolution Source

Rivian Q4 2026 earnings call or 10-K FY2026

Source Trigger

Automotive segment gross profit — when does it turn positive?

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSHIGH
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