Will multiple Rocket executives adopt new 10b5-1 plans or conduct open-market sales by Q3 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The Insider Investigator found no discretionary selling, which is modestly positive but may reflect blackout constraints. Post-blackout selling behavior is the true test. Multiple executives adopting 10b5-1 plans would signal reduced confidence in the integration thesis, contradicting the alignment implied by March 2026 RSU grants.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
C-suite received substantial RSU grants March 2026 with 3-year vesting. No discretionary selling detected. Recently granted RSUs create alignment incentive. Two executives selling is low bar but current evidence shows zero tendency.
Stock appreciated significantly from ~$14.95 grant price. Post-blackout windows open. Executives with unrealized gains may adopt 10b5-1 plans for diversification. Normal behavior. 6-month window and low threshold makes moderately likely.
Tax withholding excluded from criteria. Genuine discretionary sales or new 10b5-1 plans are less common among recently-granted executives who want appreciation. Blackout was main prior constraint.
Post-acquisition selling common. Executives with large unrealized gains typically implement 10b5-1 plans. 6-month window and low threshold make reasonably likely. Only need 2 of 6+ C-suite plus directors.
March 2026 RSU grants create fresh alignment. Executives unlikely to sell immediately after new grants. 6-month window may be too short for significant selling.
Dual-class means Gilbert does not appear in Form 4 selling. C-suite and directors have alignment from fresh RSUs. Low base rate for coordinated selling.
Fresh RSU grants create hold incentive. Post-blackout windows open but unlikely immediate selling. Zero current trend.
Stock appreciation creates selling opportunity. Post-acquisition common. Two-executive threshold low. But fresh grants discourage.
Most executives will hold through integration. Two adopting plans possible not base case.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if two or more Section 16 officers or directors of Rocket Companies adopt new 10b5-1 plans or conduct discretionary open-market stock sales (excluding tax withholding on RSU vesting) between April 1, 2026 and September 30, 2026, as reported in Form 4 or Form 144 filings. Resolves NO if fewer than two such events occur.
Resolution Source
SEC EDGAR Form 4 and Form 144 filings for Rocket Companies
Source Trigger
Multiple executives selling in open market simultaneously or multiple 10b5-1 plan adoptions
Full multi-lens equity analysis