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Will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceed 7.0% at any point before October 2026?

Resolves October 1, 2026(187d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

28%

Likely No

Model Agreement93%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Mortgage rate trajectory is the single most important external variable per the meta-synthesis. Rates above 7% would simultaneously stress origination volumes, slow recapture, and test the 'any rate environment' thesis. The Stress Scanner identified 7.5% as the critical threshold — even 7% would signal macro deterioration for the business model.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 25% – 35%Aggregate: 28%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

28%

Rates are currently 6.0-6.5%. Reaching 7.0% requires 50-100 bps increase in 6 months. Current trajectory and Fed posture suggest range-bound or declining. A spike to 7%+ would require significant macro shock. The 6-month window gives wider tail event exposure.

Current rates need 50-100 bps increaseFed posture suggests stability6-month window allows tail events

opusRun 2

32%

Google Trends show rising searches for mortgage rates tariffs, suggesting tariff-driven inflation fears could push rates higher. The tariff environment creates genuine upside risk. However, moving from 6-6.5% to 7%+ requires significant macro deterioration. Freddie Mac PMMS below 7% since late 2023.

Tariff-driven inflation riskBelow 7% since late 2023Consumer searches suggest rate concerns

opusRun 3

25%

Fundamentally a macro question outside equity analysis domain. The 30-year fixed was above 7% in Q4 2023 and Q4 2022. Given 6-month window and current levels, approximately 25%. Fed stance, labor market, and inflation trajectory are key determinants.

Macro question outside equity domainHistorical precedent for 7%+Fed stance is primary determinant

sonnetRun 1

30%

Current rates at 6-6.5% need meaningful jump to 7.0%. Macro environment (tariff uncertainty, potential inflation) creates upside risk. Market consensus and Fed suggest range-bound. Approximately 30% accounts for tariff escalation tail risk.

50-100 bps gapTariff inflation riskFed suggests stability

sonnetRun 2

35%

Tariff environment and fiscal uncertainty create more upside rate risk than base case suggests. Trade disruptions produce inflationary pressures. 6-month window provides ample time for temporary spike above 7% even if sustained level remains lower.

Tariff-driven inflation catalyst6-month window for temporary spikesGeopolitical uncertainty elevated

sonnetRun 3

27%

30-year fixed has been in gradual downtrend from 2023 peaks. Fed in holding or easing posture. While inflation risks exist, probability of 50-100 bps jump is moderate. Historical volatility suggests this occurs in fewer than 30% of comparable periods.

Rate downtrend from 2023Fed easing postureHistorical volatility analysis

haikuRun 1

28%

Rates need 50-100 bps spike. Current downtrend and Fed posture make unlikely but tariff risks create tail possibility.

Current downtrendTariff tail riskFed posture

haikuRun 2

33%

6-month window long enough for temporary spike. Tariff-driven inflation could push rates higher. Google Trends show consumer concern. Roughly 1 in 3.

6-month windowTariff inflationConsumer search trends

haikuRun 3

26%

Base case is rates stay 6-6.5% range. 7%+ requires significant macro shock. Not impossible but not most likely. Low-to-moderate probability.

Range-bound base caseRequires macro shockHistorical precedent exists

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate average exceeds 7.00% in any weekly survey published before October 1, 2026. Resolves NO if the 30-year rate remains at or below 7.00% for all weekly surveys through September 2026.

Resolution Source

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly releases

Source Trigger

30-year fixed mortgage rate above 7.5% for sustained period

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYCRITICAL

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