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Will the Redfin mortgage attach rate reach 50% by Q3 2026?

Resolves November 15, 2026(110d)

IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

50%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The Redfin mortgage attach rate is a concrete metric for the platform integration narrative. The Myth Meter flagged the 'category of one' claim as having substance but overstating uniqueness. Reaching 50% attach would validate the homeownership platform thesis; plateauing below 50% would expose limits to cross-selling.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 55%Aggregate: 50%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

Redfin attach rate grew from 27% to 40% in 4 months demonstrating strong integration momentum. 9 more months to reach 50%. Prior 13pp gain suggests 10pp gap achievable.

27% to 40% in 4 months9 months remainingStrong momentum

opusRun 2

48%

Rapid initial gain captured easiest integration wins. Moving 40% to 50% requires converting more resistant borrowers. Mortgage choice is rate/fee driven not platform driven. Diminishing returns likely.

Easy wins capturedDiminishing returnsConsumer choice rate-driven

opusRun 3

52%

Management targeting 50%. Three quarters of runway. Compass alliance may indirectly boost attach. Operating at 40% demonstrates mechanics work.

Management targetThree quarters runwayCompass may boost ecosystem

sonnetRun 1

50%

Rapid growth suggests strong execution. But 40% to 50% different challenge. Remaining borrowers harder to convert. Rate environment matters. Coin-flip.

Different challenge 40-50%Harder to convert remainingRate dependent

sonnetRun 2

45%

Mortgage is rate-driven. Brand preference historically weak. Consumers switch for 25 bps. Maintaining 40% may be easier than growing to 50%.

Rate-driven choiceWeak brand preference40% may be plateau

sonnetRun 3

52%

Integration momentum genuine. Management targets 50%. Preferred pricing is direct incentive. Three quarters of runway. Slightly above coin-flip.

Management targetPricing incentiveDiminishing returns risk

haikuRun 1

53%

Strong momentum. Management targeting 50%. Three quarters. Likely achievable.

Strong momentumManagement targetAdequate time

haikuRun 2

48%

Diminishing returns likely. 40% to 50% harder than 27% to 40%. Rate uncertainty. Near coin-flip.

Diminishing returnsHarder gainsRate uncertainty

haikuRun 3

50%

Integration momentum supports growth. Preferred pricing helps. But 50% not guaranteed. Even probability.

MomentumPricing supportUncertain

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rocket management reports that the Redfin mortgage attach rate has reached 50% or above in any quarter through Q3 2026 (quarter ending September 30, 2026). Resolves NO if the attach rate remains below 50% through Q3 2026 based on management disclosures.

Resolution Source

Rocket Companies Q1, Q2, and Q3 2026 earnings calls and press releases

Source Trigger

Redfin mortgage attach rate plateauing below 50% would signal limits to platform integration narrative

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPMEDIUM

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