RKTActive

Will Rocket lower or miss its $640M combined synergy target by year-end 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(337d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

28%

Likely No

Model Agreement93%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The $640M synergy target is the financial justification for the acquisition spree. The Consolidation Calibrator found expense synergies likely achievable but revenue synergies contingent on rate cooperation. A target miss would validate concerns about empire building over disciplined capital deployment.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 24% – 35%Aggregate: 28%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

30%

Redfin expense synergies fully realized ahead of plan. Mr. Cooper ahead of schedule. $400M expense component is credible. Revenue synergies more uncertain. Companies rarely formally lower synergy targets.

Redfin synergies realizedMr. Cooper ahead of scheduleCompanies rarely lower targets

opusRun 2

25%

Revenue synergies only 15% of total $640M. Expense execution strong. Formal target revision probability low.

Revenue 15% of totalExpense strongFormal revision unlikely

opusRun 3

33%

Resolution criteria include materially behind run-rate. Rate environment dependency for revenue synergies. Integration complexity from three deals could surface unexpected costs.

Broader resolution criteriaRate dependencyIntegration complexity

sonnetRun 1

28%

Consistent over-delivery on timelines. Expense dominates target. Management incentive to maintain.

Consistent over-deliveryExpense dominatesManagement incentive

sonnetRun 2

35%

Academic base rate: 60-70% synergy achievement. Three-entity complexity. Broad resolution criteria.

Academic base rate 60-70%Three-entity complexityBroad criteria

sonnetRun 3

27%

Redfin $140M done. Timeline accelerated signals confidence. Revenue shortfall may not be material enough.

Redfin doneAccelerated timelineRevenue shortfall may not be material

haikuRun 1

25%

Strong expense execution. Redfin complete. Revenue small share. Low probability of formal miss.

Strong expenseRedfin completeRevenue small share

haikuRun 2

30%

Three-deal integration complex. Revenue depends on rates. Macro deterioration could push behind. Expense majority tracks well.

Integration complexityRate dependencyExpense tracks well

haikuRun 3

24%

Management incentive and track record. Accelerated timeline. Low probability of formal miss.

Management incentivesAccelerated timelineTrack record

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rocket management explicitly lowers the combined synergy target below $640M, or if disclosed realized synergies as of any 2026 quarterly filing indicate the company is materially behind the run-rate needed to achieve the $640M target by the original timeline. Resolves NO if synergy targets are maintained or raised and progress remains on or ahead of plan through FY2026.

Resolution Source

Rocket Companies FY2026 earnings calls, press releases, and 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Whether $640M in combined synergies ($500M Mr. Cooper + $140M Redfin) will be fully realized

consolidation-calibratorCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTHIGH

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