RKTActive

Will Rocket's combined mortgage market share exceed 6% in H1 2026?

Resolves August 15, 2026(140d)

IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

52%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Market share trajectory tests whether the multi-channel distribution strategy (DTC, Pro, Redfin, Cooper, Compass) is delivering structural growth. Moving from 5.5% to 6%+ would validate the platform thesis. Flat share in a favorable rate environment would signal that growth was cyclical, not structural.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 48% – 58%Aggregate: 52%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

Market share grew 3.8% to 5.5% in 2025. Multi-channel distribution expanding. Only 0.5pp gain needed. Compass alliance adds distribution. Two quarters to cross 6%.

Strong 2025 trajectoryMulti-channel expandingOnly 0.5pp needed

opusRun 2

50%

Combined entity should provide additional volume. AI productivity enables growth. But market size sensitivity means share measurement depends on total market. Rates affect both numerator and denominator.

Combined entity boostAI productivityMarket size sensitivity

opusRun 3

58%

Compass alliance adds 340K agents immediately. Redfin contributing and growing. Pro channel gaining share. Multiple new volume sources. 6% achievable. Only one quarter needed above 6%.

Compass adds distributionRedfin growingOne quarter needed

sonnetRun 1

52%

Less than 10% relative improvement needed. New channels activating. But share gains during favorable rates often reverse. Slightly above coin-flip.

<10% relative improvementNew channelsRate-dependent gains

sonnetRun 2

48%

5.5% in Q4 benefited from favorable rates. If Q1-Q2 less favorable, share growth may stall. Share gains can reverse in less favorable conditions.

Q4 share may be rate-boostedLess favorable possibleCan reverse

sonnetRun 3

53%

Structural distribution advantages should support growth. Q1 guidance implies strong volume. More likely than not to cross 6% in at least one quarter.

Structural advantagesStrong Q1 guidanceTwo quarters

haikuRun 1

55%

Clear upward trajectory. Multi-channel expansion. Only 0.5pp needed. Likely to reach 6%.

Upward trajectoryMulti-channelSmall gap

haikuRun 2

50%

Coin-flip. Strong trajectory but rate environment uncertain.

Growth trajectoryRate uncertaintyCoin-flip

haikuRun 3

52%

Structural advantages and new distribution channels. Two-quarter window. Slightly above 50%.

Structural advantagesDistribution expansionTwo-quarter window

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rocket Companies reports combined mortgage origination market share of 6.0% or above for any quarter in H1 2026 (Q1 or Q2), based on management's reported market share figures or independent industry data (MBA, Inside Mortgage Finance). Resolves NO if share remains below 6.0% for both Q1 and Q2 2026.

Resolution Source

Rocket Companies Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings calls; Inside Mortgage Finance quarterly data

Source Trigger

Market share trajectory — 2027 targets require continued share gains

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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