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Will Rocket's blended recapture rate decline below 2.5x industry average by H1 2026?

Resolves August 15, 2026(140d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

38%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Recapture rate is the core moat metric. The Moat Mapper identified the 3x industry average as the clearest competitive advantage indicator. If the blended rate declines below 2.5x with Mr. Cooper integration, it validates the concern that the flywheel advantage dilutes at scale. If maintained, it confirms the vertical integration thesis.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 35% – 45%Aggregate: 38%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

Early conversion lifts on Mr. Cooper portfolio and smooth 600K loan migration suggest integration is on track. AI-driven CRM and propensity models being deployed on Cooper portfolio. Q4 2025 favorable rate conditions boosted recapture naturally. A decline below 2.5x would require significant integration friction that early evidence does not support.

Early conversion lifts on Mr. Cooper portfolioAI-driven CRM applied to Cooper clientsQ4 favorable rate conditions may not persist

opusRun 2

42%

Committee convergence expects blended recapture to moderate from 3x toward 2-2.5x near-term. This question asks about declining below 2.5x which is within the expected range. Mr. Cooper clients acquired through different business model may not respond at same rate. If rates stabilize or rise, recapture activity naturally slows.

Committee expects 2-2.5x range near-termRate environment may shiftMr. Cooper client base has different history

opusRun 3

38%

Resolution criteria require management disclosure of blended rate below 2.5x. Management has incentive to frame recapture favorably. Information asymmetry favors NO resolution. Core integration thesis has early positive signals: 600K migration, conversion lifts, AI tools deployed.

Management disclosure incentives600K successful loan migrationAI tools deployed on Cooper portfolio

sonnetRun 1

45%

Moat Mapper debate converged on expectation that blended recapture would moderate from 3x toward 2-2.5x. Midpoint is 2.25x, below the 2.5x threshold. Mr. Cooper clients were acquired as servicing book without Rocket brand affinity. Rate normalization from Q4 lows would reduce recapture activity.

Committee midpoint 2.25x below thresholdCooper clients lack Rocket brand affinityRate normalization reduces recapture

sonnetRun 2

40%

Early integration indicators positive but only 6-9 months post-close. Blended rate likely between 2x and 3x. Probability near coin-flip, slightly below 50% because early indicators favor execution.

Only 6-9 months of integrationEarly conversion lifts positiveBlended rate likely 2x-3x

sonnetRun 3

37%

Resolution requires specific disclosure of rate below 2.5x. Management may not report with enough specificity if unfavorable. AI-driven CRM is genuine capability advantage. Most likely: positive trends reported without precise blended rate.

Disclosure specificity favors NOAI CRM is genuine capabilityImprecise reporting likely

haikuRun 1

38%

Early integration positive. 3x rate expected to moderate but likely stays above 2.5x given technology advantage. Rate environment is the swing factor.

Integration ahead of scheduleTechnology advantageRate environment

haikuRun 2

43%

Committee expects 2-2.5x near-term range. Below 2.5x is within expected outcomes. Cooper clients have different affinity. But early lifts are positive.

2-2.5x is committee expectationCooper clients lower affinityEarly lifts positive

haikuRun 3

36%

Execution track record and AI tooling suggest maintenance above 2.5x. Balance of evidence favors staying above threshold.

Execution track recordAI toolingSmooth migration

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rocket management discloses, during Q1 or Q2 2026 earnings calls or filings, that the blended recapture rate on the combined portfolio has fallen below 2.5x the industry average. Resolves NO if recapture rate remains at or above 2.5x industry average, or if management does not disclose sufficient data to determine. Uses management's reported recapture rate metric.

Resolution Source

Rocket Companies Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings calls and press releases

Source Trigger

Blended recapture rate on combined portfolio declining toward 2x or below for 2+ consecutive quarters

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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