RKTActive

Will Rocket's GAAP-to-adjusted expense gap exceed $400M in any Q2 or Q3 2026 quarter?

Resolves November 15, 2026(232d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The Fugazi Filter's core concern is the material distance between GAAP and adjusted earnings. The $400M quarterly gap in Q1 2026 should narrow as one-time acquisition costs wind down. If it persists or widens, it signals that the adjusted metrics management uses to guide the narrative bear increasingly little resemblance to economic reality.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 48%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

40%

Q1 2026 gap is ~$400M. Structural items (reclassification $150M, amortization $110M, stock comp $80-90M) total $340-350M. One-time costs declining from $50M. Exceeding $400M requires modest unexpected costs or MSR volatility.

Structural items $340-370MOne-time costs declining slowlyMSR volatility could add to gap

opusRun 2

45%

$150M warehouse reclassification is permanent every quarter. Amortization $110-120M persists. Stock comp $80-90M ongoing. Base is $340-360M. MSR fair value volatility could easily add $50-100M. Two quarters to exceed threshold increases probability.

Persistent items $340-360MMSR volatility adds variabilityTwo quarters increases probability

opusRun 3

42%

Base gap without one-time items approximately $340-350M. Adding even $50M one-time costs gets to $390-400M. MSR swings excluded from adjusted but in GAAP could push above $400M.

Base gap $340-350MMSR is swing factorClose to threshold

sonnetRun 1

48%

Gap in Q1 2026 already at threshold. Structural items persist. One-time costs declining is only narrowing force. MSR in volatile rate environment could easily add $50-100M. Very close to threshold.

Q1 gap at thresholdStructural persistMSR wild card

sonnetRun 2

43%

Narrowing forces from declining one-times. But permanent structural items keep floor at $340-350M. MSR adds quarterly variability. Slight narrowing but exceeding possible.

Narrowing from declining one-timesFloor at $340-350MMSR variability

sonnetRun 3

38%

Declining one-time costs primary narrowing force. Total gap base case $360-380M below $400M threshold. But unexpected costs or MSR could push above. Base case slightly favors narrowing.

One-time decline drives narrowing$360-380M base caseUnexpected costs could push above

haikuRun 1

42%

Structural items keep gap near $340-360M. One-time declining. MSR is swing factor. Two-quarter window increases probability.

Structural persistentMSR swing factorTwo-quarter window

haikuRun 2

45%

Gap right at $400M threshold. Structural persist. MSR can push either way. Slightly above coin-flip for exceeding in at least one quarter.

Right at thresholdStructural persistenceMSR both ways

haikuRun 3

39%

One-time costs declining should narrow gap. But structural floor is high. MSR adds variability. Slightly below 50% given declining cost trend.

Declining costs narrowHigh structural floorMSR variability

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rocket Companies reports, in either Q2 2026 or Q3 2026, that the gap between total expenses and management's 'underlying' or 'adjusted' expenses exceeds $400M for the quarter. Resolves NO if the gap narrows below $400M in both Q2 and Q3 2026 as one-time acquisition costs wind down.

Resolution Source

Rocket Companies Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings press releases and 10-Q filings

Source Trigger

GAAP vs. Adjusted EPS gap widening or new adjustment categories appearing

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYHIGH

View RKT Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis