Will Rocket's blended gain-on-sale margin fall below 250 bps in Q2 2026?

Q4 2025 GOS margin was 320 bps and FY2025 was 283 bps. A drop below 250 bps requires 70+ bps decline from Q4. Even with channel mix shift and rate normalization, AI-driven cost advantages suggest margins remain above 250.

GOS margins historically correlated with rate declines. If rates rise in Q2, refinance slows reducing higher-margin volume. Pro channel gaining share compresses blended margins. But even in less favorable environments, Rocket has maintained above 250 historically.

Management committed to profitable growth. Warehouse interest reclassification is a known presentation change. Underlying margins should remain well above 250. A drop below 250 would require multiple adverse factors aligning simultaneously.

FY2025 average 283 bps in favorable environment. Q2 2026 could face less favorable conditions. Pro channel headwind. But sub-250 is a 33 bps compression from FY average. Scale and AI make sub-250 unlikely.

If tariff inflation pushes rates higher, refinance slows shifting mix toward purchase (lower margin). Combined with Pro channel gaining share, sub-250 becomes plausible though minority. Q3 2025 was 280 bps, closer to threshold than Q4.

250 bps threshold requires meaningful deterioration. Operating leverage and scale provide structural support. Most likely outcome is 260-300 bps range.

Full-year 283 bps provides solid buffer above 250. Channel mix and rates are headwinds but not enough to drive below 250.

Rate normalization and Pro channel are real headwinds. If rates rise meaningfully margins compress. But 250 breach requires multiple adverse factors.

Management committed to profitable growth. AI efficiency supports margins. 250 is well below current levels.