Will Snowflake's AI product ARR reach $200M by Q2 FY2027?

The most significant new signal is that Snowflake management REFUSED to disclose AI ARR for Q4 FY2026 despite aggressively promoting the AI narrative. CFO deflected the question, pivoting to 'growing contribution from AI workloads' without quantification. This is a material negative signal: companies that are beating internal milestones on high-profile metrics disclose them. Non-disclosure when the prior quarter's $100M figure was voluntarily shared suggests either (a) AI ARR growth decelerated and the number would disappoint, or (b) management is repositioning away from this specific metric because it won't hit the trajectory implied by 'fastest ramp in product adoption history.' The account metrics are impressive on the surface — 9,100 AI accounts up from ~6,000, Intelligence doubled to 2,500, Cortex Code at 4,400 — but these are engagement metrics, not revenue metrics. High account penetration with undisclosed ARR suggests low ARPU per AI account. To reach $200M by Q2 FY2027 from an unknown Q4 base, the growth trajectory needs to be at minimum $140-150M by Q4 (ending Jan 2026) and $175M+ by Q1 FY2027. The non-disclosure makes this trajectory unverifiable but the signal interpretation strongly suggests it fell short. Calibration note: our previous batch overestimated deceleration risk on the guidance market (Brier 0.3481), but that was a revenue guidance question where management had strong incentive to sandbag. Here, AI ARR non-disclosure is a fundamentally different signal — management had every incentive to disclose a strong number and chose not to.

Updating from the prior 38% aggregate based on Q4 FY2026 earnings data. The bull case centered on management achieving the $100M milestone one quarter early and describing AI as the 'fastest ramp in product adoption history.' Q4 earnings provided a mixed update: AI account metrics grew strongly (9,100 from ~6,000, Intelligence doubled to 2,500) but the critical AI ARR figure was withheld. This asymmetric disclosure — sharing flattering engagement metrics while withholding the revenue metric that matters for this market — shifts probability lower. However, the calibration lesson from the guidance market is important. Our prior batch was too bearish on SNOW's fundamental trajectory. Product revenue grew 30% YoY (beating 27% guide), RPO surged 42% with record deal sizes, and NRR stabilized at 125%. This is a company executing well on its core business. The question is whether AI specifically is scaling to $200M, which requires doubling in ~5-6 remaining months from an unknown Q4 base. The 200-person RIF and only 37 net headcount adds suggest cost discipline, but also potentially fewer resources dedicated to AI scaling. The Observe acquisition ($600M) is AI-adjacent but won't directly contribute to AI product ARR as defined. I move slightly lower from prior, reflecting non-disclosure as the dominant new signal while incorporating the positive calibration adjustment on overall execution.

Key update: AI ARR was not disclosed for Q4 despite management promoting AI narrative heavily. 9,100 AI accounts is strong growth but revenue is what matters for this market. Non-disclosure when you're ahead of plan is rare — companies trumpet wins. CFO's deflection to 'growing contribution' without numbers is a red flag. Intelligence doubled to 2,500 and Cortex Code hit 4,400, showing product adoption, but per-account monetization is the bottleneck. To reach $200M by Q2 FY2027, need roughly 100% growth from Q3's $100M base in ~9 months, which requires ~26% QoQ sustained. With the non-disclosure signal, probability moves lower. Applying calibration lesson: prior batch was too bearish overall, but the non-disclosure signal is a concrete negative that warrants a move down from 38%.