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Snowflake Inc.

6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
45%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Feb 25, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

6 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will Snowflake's AI product ARR reach $200M by Q2 FY2027?

Active
30%
Likely No
38%30%after Q4 FY2026 earnings — AI ARR not disclosed despite heavy AI promotion
96% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Snowflake's cloud infrastructure costs remain above 70% of product COGS for 2+ consecutive quarters by H1 FY2027?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
60%68%after Q4 FY2026 earnings — gross margin compression guided, AI confirmed margin-dilutive
94% agreement
Jun 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Snowflake's net revenue retention rate decline below 120% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?

Active
24%
Likely No
37%24%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: NRR stable at 125% for 4th consecutive quarter, record RPO $9.77B (+42%), $10M+ customers +56%
97% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will Snowflake's $1M+ customer count YoY growth decelerate below 20% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?

Active
28%
Likely No
42%28%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: $1M+ customers 733 (+27%), $10M+ customers 56 (+56%), 740 net new customers (+40%), record RPO $9.77B
96% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Snowflake's stock-based compensation decline below 35% of revenue in any FY2027 quarter?

Active
90%
Likely Yes
54%90%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: FY2026 full-year SBC at 34% (already below 35% threshold), FY2027 guided at 27%, 200-person RIF
97% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will any Snowflake executive officer make a discretionary open-market stock purchase by July 31, 2026?

Active
17%
Likely No
19%17%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: No insider buying data despite strong beat, pattern reinforced by absence during good news
98% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Snowflake's initial FY2027 full-year product revenue guidance imply growth below 25%?

Resolved
59%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.348
Feb 25, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Snowflake's initial FY2027 full-year product revenue guidance imply growth below 25%?
NOBrier: 0.35
Jun 30, 2026
Will Snowflake's cloud infrastructure costs remain above 70% of product COGS for 2+ consecutive quarters by H1 FY2027?
Prediction: 68%
Jul 31, 2026
Will any Snowflake executive officer make a discretionary open-market stock purchase by July 31, 2026?
Prediction: 17%
Sep 1, 2026
Will Snowflake's AI product ARR reach $200M by Q2 FY2027?
Prediction: 30%
Sep 1, 2026
Will Snowflake's net revenue retention rate decline below 120% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?
Prediction: 24%
Sep 1, 2026
Will Snowflake's $1M+ customer count YoY growth decelerate below 20% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?
Prediction: 28%
Sep 1, 2026
Will Snowflake's stock-based compensation decline below 35% of revenue in any FY2027 quarter?
Prediction: 90%