Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Back to Forecasting
SNOW Forecast Markets
Snowflake Inc.
6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
45%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will Snowflake's AI product ARR reach $200M by Q2 FY2027?
30%
Likely No
38%30%after Q4 FY2026 earnings — AI ARR not disclosed despite heavy AI promotion
96% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Snowflake's cloud infrastructure costs remain above 70% of product COGS for 2+ consecutive quarters by H1 FY2027?
68%
Likely Yes
60%68%after Q4 FY2026 earnings — gross margin compression guided, AI confirmed margin-dilutive
94% agreement
Jun 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Snowflake's net revenue retention rate decline below 120% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?
24%
Likely No
37%24%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: NRR stable at 125% for 4th consecutive quarter, record RPO $9.77B (+42%), $10M+ customers +56%
97% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will Snowflake's $1M+ customer count YoY growth decelerate below 20% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?
28%
Likely No
42%28%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: $1M+ customers 733 (+27%), $10M+ customers 56 (+56%), 740 net new customers (+40%), record RPO $9.77B
96% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Snowflake's stock-based compensation decline below 35% of revenue in any FY2027 quarter?
90%
Likely Yes
54%90%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: FY2026 full-year SBC at 34% (already below 35% threshold), FY2027 guided at 27%, 200-person RIF
97% agreement
Sep 1, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will any Snowflake executive officer make a discretionary open-market stock purchase by July 31, 2026?
17%
Likely No
19%17%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: No insider buying data despite strong beat, pattern reinforced by absence during good news
98% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Snowflake's initial FY2027 full-year product revenue guidance imply growth below 25%?
59%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.348Feb 25, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Snowflake's initial FY2027 full-year product revenue guidance imply growth below 25%? NOBrier: 0.35
Jul 31, 2026
Will any Snowflake executive officer make a discretionary open-market stock purchase by July 31, 2026?Prediction: 17%
Sep 1, 2026
Will Snowflake's net revenue retention rate decline below 120% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?Prediction: 24%
Sep 1, 2026
Will Snowflake's stock-based compensation decline below 35% of revenue in any FY2027 quarter?Prediction: 90%