Will Snowflake's net revenue retention rate decline below 120% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?

Q4 FY2026 NRR held at 125%, marking the 4th consecutive quarter of stability in the 124-125% range. This is now 12 months of observed stabilization, substantially resolving the prior debate about whether stabilization was genuine or a measurement artifact. The trailing 2-year calculation window that previously raised artifact concerns now provides strong inertia against rapid decline -- for NRR to breach 120% in Q1 or Q2 FY2027, it would require a dramatic deterioration in expansion rates within a 1-2 quarter window, which contradicts the 12-month stability pattern. Record RPO of $9.77B (+42% YoY) with a $400M+ single deal and 7 nine-figure deals indicates enterprise deepening is accelerating, not decelerating. The $10M+ customer cohort grew 56% YoY (36 to 56), demonstrating that top-tier customers are expanding aggressively. CFO explicitly stated 'no decline in NRR' on the earnings call, which while forward-looking guidance should be discounted, aligns with the data. Prior prediction of 37% overestimated deceleration risk -- the previous concern about cohort masking is now largely addressed by 4 quarters of stability combined with accelerating customer deepening metrics. Competitive pressure from Databricks and Fabric remains, but SNOW's AI product adoption (9,100+ accounts, Cortex Code at 4,400) is creating new expansion vectors that may offset competitive pressure on traditional workloads.

The earnings data materially de-risks this market. NRR at 125% for the 4th straight quarter establishes a clear stabilization floor. The key prior uncertainty -- whether stabilization was genuine or a trailing-window artifact -- is now substantially resolved: 12 months of stability is too long to attribute to measurement lag alone. The remaining question is whether Q1-Q2 FY2027 readings could breach 120%, which requires a 5pp decline from a stabilized base. With RPO at $9.77B (+42%), $10M+ customers growing 56%, and 740 net new customers in Q4 (+40% YoY), the expansion pipeline supporting NRR is stronger than at any point during the prior decline. The 200-person RIF and SBC reduction from 34% to guided 27% suggest operational discipline without compromising growth -- product revenue beat guidance by 3pp at +30% YoY. Trailing 2-year calculation inertia means even if expansion rates softened modestly in Q1-Q2 FY2027, headline NRR would decline gradually, not breach 5pp in a single quarter. The CFO's explicit NRR guidance reinforces management's confidence in the metric's stability. Prior prediction of 37% was calibrated before the Q4 data confirmed the stabilization thesis -- adjustment lower is warranted.

NRR stable at 125% for 4 consecutive quarters -- the stabilization debate is largely settled. Record RPO ($9.77B, +42%) and $10M+ customers growing 56% YoY demonstrate enterprise customers are expanding, not contracting. The 5pp cushion above 120% combined with trailing 2-year calculation inertia makes a breach within the next 2 reported quarters (Q1-Q2 FY2027) unlikely. Competitive pressure from Databricks and Fabric is real but AI adoption (9,100+ accounts) is creating new expansion drivers. Prior 37% prediction overweighted deceleration risk; downward revision appropriate. Residual risk from macro headwinds or unexpected competitive displacement prevents going below 20%.