Will Snowflake's $1M+ customer count YoY growth decelerate below 20% in any quarter reported by H1 FY2027?

Q4 FY2026 data shows $1M+ customers at 733 (+27% YoY), a slight deceleration from 29% in Q3 but still 7pp above the 20% threshold. The deceleration from 29% to 27% is directionally consistent with gradual maturation but the rate of deceleration is slow (2pp per quarter). At this pace, it would take 3-4 more quarters to reach 20%, extending well beyond the H1 FY2027 window. More importantly, the underlying growth dynamics are strengthening: $10M+ customers grew 56% YoY (36 to 56), indicating that existing large customers are deepening dramatically rather than churning. The 740 net new customers in Q4 (+40% YoY) represents a record, and even if only a fraction cross the $1M threshold, the pipeline for future $1M+ adds is robust. The $400M+ single deal and 7 nine-figure deals in Q4 represent unprecedented enterprise traction. Prior prediction of 42% substantially overestimated deceleration risk. The key residual risk is whether Q4's strong customer additions were partially pulled forward from Q1-Q2 FY2027 (year-end budget flush), which could create a softer H1. However, RPO at $9.77B (+42%) suggests forward commitments are strong. The 2pp deceleration from 29% to 27% leaves a 7pp buffer -- material enough that a single weak quarter is unlikely to breach 20% unless there is an exogenous shock.

The Q4 data directly addresses this market's core question. $1M+ customer growth decelerated from 29% to 27% -- a 2pp decline that narrows the buffer to 7pp above the 20% threshold. However, the deceleration rate matters: 2pp per quarter implies ~3.5 quarters to reach 20%, which extends beyond the H1 FY2027 reporting window (Q1-Q2 FY2027, reported approximately May-August 2026). The composition of growth is also improving: $10M+ customers grew from 36 to 56 (+56% YoY), meaning the largest customers are expanding faster than the broad $1M+ cohort. This 'top-heavy deepening' is a positive signal for NRR and revenue durability even if headline $1M+ count growth moderates. The 740 net new customers in Q4 (+40% YoY) represents a significant acceleration in the total customer pipeline, which feeds future $1M+ additions as smaller customers expand. The Observe acquisition ($600M) could accelerate enterprise adoption by adding observability capabilities to SNOW's platform, potentially creating a new expansion vector for mid-tier customers approaching the $1M threshold. Competitive concerns remain valid -- Databricks and Fabric are real threats -- but Q4 data shows SNOW is winning new enterprise business, not losing it. The prior 42% prediction was too pessimistic given the strong enterprise metrics.

Q4 shows $1M+ customers at 733 (+27% YoY), decelerating 2pp from 29%. The 7pp buffer above 20% threshold is meaningful. Growth pipeline remains strong: 740 net new total customers (+40% YoY) and $10M+ segment growing 56%. Record $400M+ deal and 7 nine-figure deals demonstrate enterprise momentum. Competitive pressure from Databricks and Fabric is ongoing but not yet manifesting in customer count deceleration -- the 2pp decline is modest and consistent with natural base effect maturation. For growth to breach 20% in Q1 or Q2 FY2027, SNOW would need to add significantly fewer $1M+ customers than the ~45-50 quarterly run rate implied by recent data. Residual risk: year-end budget concentration in Q4 could mean Q1 FY2027 is softer, and macro headwinds could slow enterprise IT spending. But 7pp buffer and strong pipeline make breach unlikely within the timeframe.