Will any Snowflake executive officer make a discretionary open-market stock purchase by July 31, 2026?

The Q4 FY2026 earnings results were exceptionally strong — 30% product revenue growth beating 27% guidance, record $400M+ deal, $9.77B RPO (+42%), NRR recovering to 125%. If this kind of blowout quarter doesn't catalyze insider buying, it's hard to imagine what would. The stock pulled back to ~$165 before earnings (from ~$268 highs), offering a 39% discount — and no insider bought during that window either. The absence of buying during a strong beat is actually more informative than the absence during uncertainty: insiders now have confirmation of business acceleration and still aren't buying. This reinforces the 18+ month pattern of zero discretionary purchases across all Section 16 officers. The $150M corporate buyback at ~$225 signals the company itself sees value, but corporate buybacks are board-directed capital allocation decisions, not personal conviction signals. No Form 4 data emerged from the earnings call. The 200-person RIF creates a window where insiders might buy to signal confidence to remaining employees — but this scenario hasn't materialized at other tech companies with similar actions. New CFO Brian Robins remains the primary wildcard, now approximately 5 months into his tenure. If he hasn't filed a Form 4 purchase by now, the probability diminishes as time passes. Resolution window is February 7 - July 31, 2026 — approximately 5 months remaining. The behavioral base rate (0/18+ months across ~8-10 officers) continues to dominate.

The initial prediction of 19% was well-calibrated and the earnings update provides limited new information to shift it materially. The core thesis remains intact: zero discretionary insider purchases across all Section 16 officers for 18+ months, no buying during multiple pullbacks, and a cultural norm of systematic selling via 10b5-1 plans. The Q4 earnings beat was strong (30% product revenue growth, $9.77B RPO), which could theoretically trigger a conviction buy — but the fact that it didn't is mildly bearish. The corporate buyback ($150M at ~$225) demonstrates the board sees value but this is institutional, not personal. The 200-person RIF is a modest negative signal for insider purchases: (1) insiders executing layoffs rarely simultaneously signal personal conviction through buying, as it creates optics issues, and (2) the RIF suggests management is in cost-optimization mode, not growth-confidence mode, even if the earnings were strong. The resolution window has shortened from ~5.5 months to ~5 months, which mechanically reduces the probability slightly (less time for a purchase to occur). New CFO Robins remains the swing factor, but each month without a purchase reduces the likelihood — symbolic purchases typically happen in the first 3-6 months of tenure, and he's now past the 5-month mark. Maintaining near the initial estimate with a marginal downward bias.

The behavioral base rate is the dominant signal: zero purchases across all Section 16 officers for 18+ months. The Q4 earnings beat was strong but produced no insider buying activity — if insiders won't buy after a 30% revenue growth quarter with stock 39% below highs, the base rate is reinforced. The corporate buyback ($150M) is not a substitute for personal conviction. The resolution window has shortened slightly. New CFO Robins is past the 5-month mark with no purchase. The 200-person RIF may actually discourage personal buying (optics of executives buying while laying off staff). Slight downward adjustment from initial 19% to reflect (1) shortened window, (2) absence of buying after strong quarter, (3) CFO moving past typical symbolic purchase window. But maintaining in the 15-20% range because the initial estimate properly weighted these factors.