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SOFIActive

Will SoFi's cross-buy rate decline below 35% in any FY2026 quarter?

Resolves February 15, 2027(201d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

8%
Likely No
Model Agreement98%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 26, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Cross-buy rate is the key operational metric for the ecosystem moat thesis. At 40% (up 7pp YoY), it suggests members are deepening engagement. A decline below 35% would signal the flywheel is weakening and the multi-product switching cost moat may be weaker than assessed. Sustained growth above 40% would strengthen the DEFENSIBLE competitive position classification.

COMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 6% – 10%Aggregate: 8%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
8%

Cross-buy on strong upward trajectory from ~33% to 40% (+7pp). Structural metric driven by cohort maturation. 97% direct deposit creates deep relationships. 5pp decline would require extraordinary reversal.

Strong upward trendCohort maturation5pp decline extraordinary
opusRun 2
7%

Product launches ADD cross-sell opportunities. 97% direct deposit ensures deep relationships. Even with record additions, rate continued rising. Below 35% would require fundamental breakdown.

New products add cross-sell97% direct depositFundamental breakdown needed
opusRun 3
10%

Slightly higher considering methodology risk or aggressive single-product acquisition. Even worst case, below 35% from 40% extremely unlikely.

Methodology change riskSingle-product dilution possibleBelow 35% still extreme
sonnetRun 1
6%

Asking if ecosystem flywheel breaks dramatically. At 40% and rising 7pp YoY, below 35% requires catastrophic failure.

Flywheel breakdown requiredExisting relationships stable7pp improvement trend
sonnetRun 2
9%

40% to below 35% is >12% decline in improving metric. Only plausible from massive single-product influx. SoFi converts via direct deposit flywheel.

12% decline in improving metricCrypto dilution plausible but insufficientFlywheel converts members
sonnetRun 3
8%

Strong structural upward trend, deep relationships, expanding products. Very unlikely.

Structural trendDeep relationshipsMethodology risk only pathway
haikuRun 1
7%

40% and rising. Below 35% needs >12% decline. Not happening without fundamental failure.

Strong trend12% decline neededNo failure expected
haikuRun 2
6%

Cross-buy at 40% up from 33%. Products per member increasing. 97% direct deposit locks ecosystem.

Products increasingDirect deposit locksNear-impossible
haikuRun 3
8%

Structural improvement from cohort maturation. 5pp decline unprecedented.

Cohort maturationExpanding productsUnprecedented decline

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if SoFi reports a cross-buy rate (or multi-product adoption rate) below 35% in any quarterly earnings report during FY2026. Resolves NO if cross-buy rate remains at or above 35% in all reported quarters.

Resolution Source

SoFi Technologies quarterly earnings releases and investor presentations

Source Trigger

Cross-buy rate declining below 35%

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM
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