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Will SoFi disclose personal loan net charge-off rates above 4% annualized in any 2026 quarterly filing?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Credit quality is the central unresolved debate across 3 lenses. The $36B annual origination book with ~15% of US prime market share has not been tested through recession. Net charge-off rates above 4% would indicate stress beyond prime norms and validate the bear case that SoFi should be valued as a bank rather than a fintech. Below 4% would strengthen the case that SoFi's underwriting quality holds through stress.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
SoFi targets prime borrowers with high FICO scores. Prime NCO rates typically 2-3.5%. Exceeding 4% requires significant stress. 23% capital ratio and LPB provide buffers. Defaults to NO if undisclosed.
Loan book grew rapidly and is untested through recession. Rapid growth often correlates with loosening standards. 15% market share is high. But 4% is 30-50% above normal. No recession expected in 2026.
SoFi targets high-income high-FICO borrowers. 4% threshold is well above norms. LPB allows risk shedding. Sudden recession needed. Disclosure default adds downward pressure.
Prime NCOs above 4% require recession or underwriting problems. Current macro does not support 2026 recession. CEO buying $1.5M signals confidence. Default NO if unavailable.
More concerned due to record pace growth and lack of granular disclosure. Transparency gap is mild red flag. Rapid unsecured growth historically precedes problems. But 4% still requires macro shock.
Prime targeting, 23% capital, LPB transfer, no recession base case. Black swan needed for 4%. Management incentives aligned with credit quality.
4% on prime book requires recession or underwriting failure. Neither is base case. LPB and 23% capital provide buffers. Default NO if undisclosed.
Rapid growth concerning but prime targeting buffers. 4% well above norms. Slightly higher due to untested book.
No recession base case, prime borrowers, strong capital. 4% is generous buffer. CEO shares signal confidence.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SoFi's 10-Q or 10-K filings for any FY2026 quarter disclose personal loan net charge-offs (or equivalent credit loss metric) exceeding 4% annualized. Resolves NO if all quarters show NCO below 4% or if SoFi does not disclose granular NCO data (resolution defaults to NO if data unavailable).
Resolution Source
SoFi Technologies 10-Q and 10-K filings, credit supplement disclosures
Source Trigger
Personal loan net charge-off rate shows significant deterioration vs. prime benchmarks
Full multi-lens equity analysis