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Will Tianqi Lithium's ownership of SQM fall below 18% by year-end 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Tianqi Lithium's ~22% stake with active selling (~3M shares filed) creates persistent overhang identified by three lenses. If Tianqi drops below 18%, it signals accelerated exit that increases near-term pressure but reduces long-term overhang. The pace of reduction tests whether Tianqi's financial pressures or lithium market views are driving the selling.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.4 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.38 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.32 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.3 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.3 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.28 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.32 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Tianqi Lithium's beneficial ownership of SQM falls below 18% as reported in SEC filings or Chilean regulatory disclosures by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if ownership remains at 18% or above.
Resolution Source
SEC 13G/13D amendments or Chilean market regulatory filings
Source Trigger
Tianqi ~22% ownership with ~3M shares filed for sale creates persistent overhang. Chilean law prohibits buybacks.
Full multi-lens equity analysis