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Will antimony spot price remain above $20/lb through Q2 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Antimony pricing above $20/lb sustains the revenue trajectory. A decline below this level would compress margins and revenue, testing whether the DLA contract provides an adequate floor. This directly tests the price-vs-volume revenue decomposition.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Prices declining from peak. China ban suspended. SE Asian supply growing.
Every-day criterion is strict. Commodity prices volatile.
Defense demand floor. US stockpiling. Structural deficit may persist.
Prices trending toward pre-ban levels. $20/lb floor uncertain.
Defense premium supports. Every-day criterion demanding.
Supply constraints persist. New mines years away. $20 may be structural floor.
Coin flip. Declining but tight supply.
Defense support. China pressure. Near equilibrium.
Structural deficit. $20 likely holds.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if antimony spot price (Rotterdam or equivalent benchmark) remains above $20/lb for every trading day through June 30, 2026. Resolves NO if price closes below $20/lb on any trading day.
Resolution Source
Fastmarkets antimony price assessment or equivalent industry benchmark
Source Trigger
Antimony price below $15/lb sustained for 30+ days
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