Will UAMY's Montana Thompson Falls expansion be fully operational by Q1 2026?
The Thompson Falls expansion was delayed approximately 5 months from the original year-end 2025 target to May 2026. CEO confirmed the revised timeline on the FY2025 earnings call. The facility was not operational by March 31, 2026.
Prediction Score
Final Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The 400% Montana capacity expansion is the single most important execution milestone. Operational completion unlocks the volume growth that could decouple revenue from commodity pricing. Delay cascades to all revenue projections.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Year-end 2025 target, on schedule Q3 2025. Mining delays common.
400% is major. Winter weather risk. Equipment supply chain.
$27M DoW funding. Strong incentive. Prior project experience.
Mining projects typically 6-12 months late. 3-month buffer only.
Existing facility expansion less complex than greenfield.
Existing operational smelter. Active progress. Lean YES.
On schedule. Existing facility. Dedicated PM.
Delays common. 400% ambitious. Near coin-flip.
Management incentive strong. DoW funding. Lean YES.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if UAMY confirms full operational status of expanded Thompson Falls facility by March 31, 2026 in an earnings call, press release, or 10-K/10-Q filing. Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution Source
UAMY press releases, earnings calls, or SEC filings
Source Trigger
Montana expansion delayed beyond Q1 2026
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