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Will co-founder insider selling pace decline below $15M/month average in H1 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Co-founders selling ~$24M/month while projecting 20%+ growth creates a credibility gap flagged by the Insider Investigator. Any acceleration beyond current levels would escalate governance concerns. Deceleration or cessation would signal genuine conviction in the forward trajectory.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive provides partial support, but 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic creates counterweight. Probability: 0.16.
Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive provides partial support, but 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic creates counterweight. Probability: 0.15.
Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive provides partial support, but 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic creates counterweight. Probability: 0.24.
Base rate evidence: 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic. Partial offset from stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive. Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Probability: 0.24.
Base rate evidence: 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic. Partial offset from stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive. Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Probability: 0.2.
Base rate evidence: 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic. Partial offset from stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive. Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Probability: 0.21.
Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Balance of evidence suggests 0.23 probability. Primary support: stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive. Main counterargument: 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic.
Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Balance of evidence suggests 0.16 probability. Primary support: stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive. Main counterargument: 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic.
Programmatic selling via 10b5-1 plans rarely decelerates without specific catalyst. Balance of evidence suggests 0.09 probability. Primary support: stock at multi-year lows could reduce selling incentive. Main counterargument: 10b5-1 plans are sticky and programmatic.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if average monthly co-founder selling (Niraj Shah and Steve Conine combined) falls below $15M/month for H1 2026 based on SEC Form 4 filings. Resolves NO if average equals or exceeds $15M/month.
Resolution Source
SEC Form 4 filings for Niraj Shah and Steve Conine
Source Trigger
Co-founders selling ~$24M/month via 10b5-1 plans while projecting 20%+ growth; any acceleration would escalate governance concerns
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