RuncheyResearch
Back to Forecasting
WActive

Will Wayfair report positive GAAP net income in any quarter of H2 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

22%
Likely No
Model Agreement95%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

GAAP profitability is the key resolution point for the Fugazi Filter's QUESTIONABLE assessment. With SBC at ~$300M+ annually, achieving GAAP net income requires enough operating leverage to absorb real compensation costs. Success would validate the turnaround; failure would confirm the non-GAAP/GAAP gap is structural.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 13% – 28%Aggregate: 22%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
23%

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Trajectory improving provides partial support, but never achieved post-ipo creates counterweight. Probability: 0.23.

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improvingNever achieved post-IPO
opusRun 2
23%

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Trajectory improving provides partial support, but never achieved post-ipo creates counterweight. Probability: 0.23.

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improvingNever achieved post-IPO
opusRun 3
28%

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Trajectory improving provides partial support, but never achieved post-ipo creates counterweight. Probability: 0.28.

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improvingNever achieved post-IPO
sonnetRun 1
22%

Base rate evidence: never achieved post-ipo. Partial offset from trajectory improving. SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Probability: 0.22.

Never achieved post-IPOSBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improving
sonnetRun 2
20%

Base rate evidence: never achieved post-ipo. Partial offset from trajectory improving. SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Probability: 0.2.

Never achieved post-IPOSBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improving
sonnetRun 3
15%

Base rate evidence: never achieved post-ipo. Partial offset from trajectory improving. SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Probability: 0.15.

Never achieved post-IPOSBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improving
haikuRun 1
13%

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Balance of evidence suggests 0.13 probability. Primary support: trajectory improving. Main counterargument: never achieved post-ipo.

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improvingNever achieved post-IPO
haikuRun 2
19%

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Balance of evidence suggests 0.19 probability. Primary support: trajectory improving. Main counterargument: never achieved post-ipo.

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improvingNever achieved post-IPO
haikuRun 3
25%

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026. Balance of evidence suggests 0.25 probability. Primary support: trajectory improving. Main counterargument: never achieved post-ipo.

SBC burden at 40% of adj EBITDA creates structural gap that revenue growth alone may not close in 2026Trajectory improvingNever achieved post-IPO

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Wayfair reports positive GAAP net income in either Q3 or Q4 2026. Resolves NO if GAAP net income is negative in both quarters.

Resolution Source

Wayfair Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings releases

Source Trigger

SBC of ~$300M+ annually renders GAAP unprofitable; adj. EBITDA $743M but GAAP net income negative

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYHIGH
View W Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis