Will Cash App monthly active users remain at or above 57M in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026?

The 12+ month plateau at 57-58M is the dominant signal — MAU has been remarkably stable, not declining. With 30-40% of users having meaningful switching costs via banking/lending engagement, that provides a structural floor. The NARROWING trajectory suggests gradual erosion over many quarters, not sudden drops. Management's 'multiplayer money' social features investment supports retention. The compound requirement (both quarters must hold) is the main risk, but given the stability pattern, each quarter independently has high odds of clearing 57M.

The compound condition is the critical factor — both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 must independently clear 57M. If each quarter has ~87% probability of clearing, the combined probability is ~0.76. However, the NARROWING trajectory, competitive pressure from Apple Pay and PayPal, and the lack of disclosed churn data introduce meaningful uncertainty. Actual churn could be masked by replacement users, making the 57-58M plateau less stable than it appears. The 142-day data staleness adds further uncertainty about what Q4 2025 actually looks like.

The structural equilibrium at 57-58M across 4+ quarters is strong evidence of stability. Banking actives growing at 18-20% YoY means the sticky cohort is expanding, providing increasing floor protection over time. The CONTESTED classification and unresolved DEFENSIBLE vs CONTESTED debate is relevant — if the position is merely contested rather than defensible, the probability of MAU erosion is higher. However, even CONTESTED implies the moat has not yet eroded to the point of user loss. The 57M threshold sits at the bottom of the established range, providing buffer.

The stability pattern is the dominant signal — 4 consecutive quarters at 57-58M with no declining trend. The 57M threshold sits at the floor of the established range. Primary banking actives at 8.3M growing 18-20% YoY provides deepening engagement that supports retention. The compound requirement (both quarters) is the main risk, but given strong independent odds for each quarter, the combined probability remains favorable. The burden of proof is on disruption, not continuation.

The data clearly shows 57-58M for 12 months — the question is whether this pattern continues for 2 more quarters. Competitive pressure from Apple Pay and PayPal is real but gradual; these competitors are not going to steal 1M+ Cash App users in a single quarter. The NARROWING trajectory matters more over 4-8 quarters than 2 quarters. The biggest uncertainty is that Q4 2025 is already in the past — earnings report Feb 26 will reveal an already-determined number. The 60-70% lightly engaged users are the vulnerability, but no evidence of accelerating churn exists in the available data.

The 4-quarter range of 57-58M is tight and stable. For the question to resolve NO, one quarter would need to print 56.9M or below — a departure from the well-established range. The 'multiplayer money' social features and growing banking actives provide tailwind for user retention. The 60-70% lightly engaged users are the vulnerability, but there is no evidence in the data of accelerating departure. The Myth Meter's identification of flat MAU as the central tension (C1) is relevant — the market is squarely testing whether this tension resolves toward stability or erosion.

MAU flat at 57-58M for 12+ months — strong stability pattern. Both quarters need 57M+. Banking actives growing at 18-20% provides floor support. Competitive pressure is real but gradual — no catalyst for sudden drop. Compound condition slightly reduces probability but quarters are positively correlated.

12-month plateau at 57-58M is strong stability evidence. NARROWING trajectory is a long-term concern but unlikely to cause sharp drop in 2 quarters. 30-40% switching costs provide floor. Both quarters must hold, reducing probability slightly. The 142-day data staleness and lack of churn data add some uncertainty to the stability assessment.

Stable MAU pattern at 57-58M is the strongest signal. Banking actives growing at 18-20% means stickier users over time, increasing floor protection. Compound condition is the key risk but quarters are correlated — if Q4 holds, Q1 very likely holds. No evidence of accelerating competitive pressure in the data.