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XYZ Forecast Markets
Block, Inc.
5
Active Markets
4
Resolved
38%
Avg Probability
All Markets
9 markets
Will Block receive a SEC Wells notice or formal enforcement action by December 31, 2026?
28%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 1.00
Will Block record an Afterpay-related goodwill impairment charge in FY2025 or FY2026?
30%
Likely No
90% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Square Financial Services receive an FDIC enforcement action or charter restriction by December 31, 2026?
9%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will Cash App monthly active users remain at or above 57M in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026?
71%
Likely Yes
95% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will the Block securities class action (N.D. Cal.) reach a settlement or trial verdict by December 31, 2026?
22%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Block report Q4 2025 gross profit growth of 15% or higher YoY?
86%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.020Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Block disclose Borrow loss rates above 3% in Q4 2025 earnings or the FY2025 10-K?
15%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.022Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Block disclose vintage-level loan cohort data for Borrow in the FY2025 10-K or Q4 2025 earnings?
12%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.014Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Block report Q4 2025 Square GPV growth of 10% or higher YoY?
68%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.102Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block report Q4 2025 gross profit growth of 15% or higher YoY? YESBrier: 0.02
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block report Q4 2025 Square GPV growth of 10% or higher YoY? YESBrier: 0.10
Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block disclose Borrow loss rates above 3% in Q4 2025 earnings or the FY2025 10-K? NOBrier: 0.02
Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block disclose vintage-level loan cohort data for Borrow in the FY2025 10-K or Q4 2025 earnings? NOBrier: 0.01
Jun 15, 2026
Will Cash App monthly active users remain at or above 57M in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026?Prediction: 71%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Block receive a SEC Wells notice or formal enforcement action by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 28%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the Block securities class action (N.D. Cal.) reach a settlement or trial verdict by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 22%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Block record an Afterpay-related goodwill impairment charge in FY2025 or FY2026?Prediction: 30%