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XYZ Forecast Markets

Block, Inc.

5
Active Markets
4
Resolved
38%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Feb 26, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

9 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will Block receive a SEC Wells notice or formal enforcement action by December 31, 2026?

Active
28%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will Block record an Afterpay-related goodwill impairment charge in FY2025 or FY2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
90% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Square Financial Services receive an FDIC enforcement action or charter restriction by December 31, 2026?

Active
9%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will Cash App monthly active users remain at or above 57M in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026?

Active
71%
Likely Yes
95% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will the Block securities class action (N.D. Cal.) reach a settlement or trial verdict by December 31, 2026?

Active
22%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Block report Q4 2025 gross profit growth of 15% or higher YoY?

Resolved
86%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.020
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Block disclose Borrow loss rates above 3% in Q4 2025 earnings or the FY2025 10-K?

Resolved
15%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.022
Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Block disclose vintage-level loan cohort data for Borrow in the FY2025 10-K or Q4 2025 earnings?

Resolved
12%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.014
Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Block report Q4 2025 Square GPV growth of 10% or higher YoY?

Resolved
68%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.102
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block report Q4 2025 gross profit growth of 15% or higher YoY?
YESBrier: 0.02
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block report Q4 2025 Square GPV growth of 10% or higher YoY?
YESBrier: 0.10
Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block disclose Borrow loss rates above 3% in Q4 2025 earnings or the FY2025 10-K?
NOBrier: 0.02
Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Block disclose vintage-level loan cohort data for Borrow in the FY2025 10-K or Q4 2025 earnings?
NOBrier: 0.01
Jun 15, 2026
Will Cash App monthly active users remain at or above 57M in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026?
Prediction: 71%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Block receive a SEC Wells notice or formal enforcement action by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 28%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Square Financial Services receive an FDIC enforcement action or charter restriction by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 9%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the Block securities class action (N.D. Cal.) reach a settlement or trial verdict by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 22%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Block record an Afterpay-related goodwill impairment charge in FY2025 or FY2026?
Prediction: 30%