Will Block report Q4 2025 Square GPV growth of 10% or higher YoY?

The acceleration trend (+7.2% -> +10% -> +12%) is strong and persistent across three consecutive quarters. Q4 2024 baseline of +10% is moderately high but not peak. Trajectory momentum from Q3's +12% provides a tailwind. Against a +10% base from Q4 2024, maintaining above +10% YoY requires less absolute GPV growth than Q3 (easier comp in absolute terms). Seasonal Q4 benefits for retail-heavy Square segment (holiday spending). Field sales scaling, NVA metrics, and new partnerships (Grubhub, Cisco) suggest continued go-to-market investment. Processing partner cost headwind affects GP, not GPV.

The question is whether acceleration sustains or Q3 was a peak. Q4 2024 comp is +10%, harder than Q1 2025's comp. But trajectory has been consistently upward. Processing partner cost shift is irrelevant to GPV (affects GP margins only). Seasonal Q4 typically benefits retail and food & beverage — Square's core verticals. Upmarket expansion and international expansion provide incremental GPV sources. Myth Meter finding that operational fundamentals are stronger than narrative suggests is relevant. Stripe Terminal competitive pressure is unquantifiable. Committee assessed CONTESTED/NARROWING which implies competitive pressure is real but not yet manifesting in GPV deceleration.

Across Q1-Q3 2025, Square GPV growth was +7.2%, +10%, +12%. Two of three quarters were at or above +10%. Q4 2024 baseline was +10%. For Q4 2025 to be below +10%, it would need to decelerate from +12% in Q3 by more than 2pp. Historical pattern shows acceleration, not deceleration. But Q3 could represent a peak — the committee explicitly flagged this risk. GPV is a volume metric that benefits from inflation and organic SMB growth. Asymmetric uncertainty: we cannot quantify Stripe Terminal market share loss, and upmarket expansion introduces different competitive dynamics.

The data is clear: +7.2%, +10%, +12% — an accelerating trend line. Q4 seasonal benefits for retail and restaurant verticals help. The comp is +10% from Q4 2024, which is moderate. Processing cost headwind doesn't affect GPV. Two of three quarters already cleared the 10% threshold, and the trajectory is UP. The risk factors (Stripe, macro) are speculative without data. No evidence of deceleration has materialized.

Three data points of acceleration. Q4 seasonal uplift for Square's core verticals. The comp is manageable at +10%. But genuine uncertainty exists — Q3 may have been a peak if upmarket expansion hit a ceiling or if macro conditions shifted. The Moat Mapper's NARROWING trajectory suggests competitive pressure is real even if not yet visible in GPV. Still, for GPV to drop below 10% would require a reversal of a well-established trend with no visible catalyst.

Acceleration is undeniable but the comp matters. Q4 2024 was already +10%, making Q4 2025 harder than Q1's comp. Still, Q3 at +12% with Q2 at +10% shows momentum building. Holiday seasonal benefit is relevant for Square merchants. New partnerships (Grubhub, Cisco) could add incremental volume. Main bear case is that Stripe Terminal or other competitors are silently gaining share — but zero evidence this has begun manifesting in GPV data.

Clear acceleration trend: +7.2% -> +10% -> +12%. Q4 seasonality helps (retail, restaurants). Comp is +10% (moderate). Two of three 2025 quarters already exceeded 10%. Momentum is up, not down. Processing cost headwind is GP-only, irrelevant to GPV.

Trend is accelerating. Processing cost headwind is GP-only, not GPV. Seasonal tailwind for Q4. Partnerships provide incremental volume. Risk is peak at Q3 but no evidence of reversal yet. Competitive pressure from Stripe Terminal is the main uncertainty but unquantifiable.

Strong acceleration through 2025. Q4 retail season benefits Square merchants. Threshold of 10% has been met or exceeded in 2 of 3 recent quarters. Risk of deceleration exists but not data-supported. Upmarket and international expansion provide additional growth vectors.