Will Block report Q4 2025 gross profit growth of 15% or higher YoY?

Management guided Q4 GP to $2.755B (+19% YoY), 4pp above the 15% threshold. They have raised guidance 3 consecutive quarters and never missed in FY2025. The GP acceleration pattern (+9% to +14% to +18%) is well-established, and Cash App GP grew +24% in Q3. For 15% to be missed, Block would need to undershoot guidance by ~$92M, which would be unprecedented in the current trajectory. Primary risk is lending quality deterioration, but Q3 showed no credit stress signals.

To miss 15%, Block would need to undershoot its own Q4 GP guide by ~$92M. Management has not missed guidance this year and the acceleration in Cash App GP (10% to 16% to 24%) provides strong momentum. Lending risk from +134% origination growth is the most credible downside, but credit deterioration sufficient to cause a 4pp miss would require a severe macro shock between Q3 close and Q4 close. Q4 seasonal dynamics (holiday spending) typically favor payment volumes.

Specific math: Q4 2024 GP ~$2.31B implied. For 15% growth, Q4 2025 needs ~$2.66B vs management guide of $2.755B — a ~$95M buffer (~3.5% of quarterly GP). The strongest downside is a lending shock: at ~20-25% GP contribution with +134% growth, lending contributes ~$550-690M quarterly GP. A 15% shock to lending GP (~$85-100M) could eat the entire buffer. But no credit deterioration evidence exists in Q3 data. The Moat Mapper's NARROWING position is more relevant to multi-year outlook than single-quarter delivery.

This is near-certain. Management guided 19% GP growth for Q4 — 4pp above threshold — and has beaten or raised guidance every quarter in FY2025. The acceleration from +9% to +18% through Q1-Q3 shows improving execution. Cash App GP at +24% growth shows no signs of slowing. The only miss scenario requires a severe credit event affecting the lending book between October-December 2025, but Q3 earnings showed no stress signals. The 4pp buffer between threshold and guidance is enormous.

Management has proven reliable on guidance — raised 3 times, never missed. Guiding to 19% with threshold at 15% creates substantial margin of safety. GP acceleration is driven by Cash App monetization deepening (+24% GP growth in Q3) and lending expansion (+134% originations). Square GP at +9% still contributing positively. Processing partner cost headwind already embedded in guidance. For NO, you'd need an unexpected Q4 shock — none evident in data. Moat Mapper's NARROWING position affects long-term trajectory, not immediate Q4.

Asymmetric evidence structure: all positive indicators (acceleration trend, raised guidance, Cash App momentum, lending growth) point to YES. The NO case requires an unlikely shock scenario. Management's Q4 guide of $2.755B (+19%) implies visibility into early Q4 trends when guidance was issued in November. Credit risk from rapid lending growth is the most credible downside, but even significant deterioration would need to wipe ~$95M GP to breach 15%, and that would likely have been flagged in subsequent disclosures.

Management guides 19%, threshold is 15%. They raised guidance 3x in FY2025 and never missed. GP acceleration from +9% to +18% is clear. Cash App GP +24% provides strong Q4 momentum. 4pp buffer between guide and threshold makes this highly likely to resolve YES.

The 15% threshold is well below management's 19% guide. GP growth has accelerated all year with Cash App at +24% as the main driver. Lending expansion (+134%) supports continued growth. Only a major unexpected shock could cause a miss of this magnitude. Processing cost headwinds already reflected in guidance.

Acceleration pattern (+9% to +18%) and management guidance (+19% for Q4) strongly favor YES. Lending risk is real but would need to be severe to close a 4pp gap. No credit stress visible in latest data. Seasonal Q4 dynamics support payment volumes. Slightly lower probability to account for tail risk of macro shock or lending quality surprise.